Global IHME Projections of Covid-19, Including the Omicron Variant
We present a shortened version of the thorough IHME (Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington) projections for the spread and effects of Covid globally up to April 1, 2022 in the Global Policy Briefing.
In the next two months, they project that 40% of the world population will be infected by the Omicron variant. That will be over three billion people. Over 90% of the infections will be asymptomatic. The rate of diagnosed infections will peak in early February at about 3.0 million per day.
The Infection Hospitalization Rate with Omicron will be 90-96% lower than that for the Delta variant. The Infection Fatality Rate will be 97-99% lower than that of the Delta variant. Reported daily deaths will be greater than 9,000 per day in early February.
Last week Global Daily Estimated Infections were at 12.1 million per day, but reported as only 650,000 per day, or at a 5.4% rate. Reported deaths were 7,000 per day, whereas total Covid deaths were at 11,600 per day, a factor of 1.7 greater.
As of December 13, 40% of the global population had been infected, with an infection detection rate of only 12%.
For Global vaccinations, 57% have at least one dose, and 46% are fully vaccinated. Their projections are for 56% to be fully vaccinated by April 1, 2022. 66% say that they would be willing to take a vaccine.
From the graphs in the IHME Covid-19 Global Projections, the Reference scenario, Estimated Daily Infections peak on January 29, 2022, at 38 million per day. Modeled vaccine scenarios do not change this much. Daily detected cases are only 3 million per day then. With 80% masking, the infection rate could be reduced to 26 million per day, or 2/3 of the Reference scenario.
Asymptomatic cases are 40% with the Delta variant, but are 90-95% with the Omicron variant.
By April 1, there will be globally 13.9 million total deaths, of which only 6.9 million or half will have been reported. The total will be an increase of 1.5 million from December 13. With 80% masking, this would be reduced to 0.67 million deaths, or to only 43% of the increased deaths.
Total daily deaths peak on February 1, 2022 at 17,260, but only 9,600 or 56% are reported. With 80% masking the total daily deaths could be reduced to 11,800, or to 68% or 2/3.
