IHME Covid Projections for California, Now Including the Omicron Variant
The projected total deaths for California on April 1 are 87,397, while deaths for December 31, are 76,603. This means 10,794 deaths will follow in the next three months, including a peak around March 2nd. With 80% masking, this can be reduced to 83,639 total deaths by April 1, with 7,036 left to go. That is 65% or 2/3 of the future deaths with the present 54% masking. This may have been calculated before Governor Newsom mandated indoor masking.
Today, California Vaccinations are: 1 dose at 82%, and full at 67%. On April 1, there will be: 1 dose at 84%, and full at 79%.
Based on limited personal observation, the masking mandate is either being ignored, or flaunted as chin straps. More emphasis has to be placed on covering the nose as the source of transmission and infection. The IHME also emphasizes stepping up to N95, KN95 or KN94, and dropping cloth masks. Physics experiments tracking droplets in coughs show that they can propagate 12 feet, well beyond the standard 6 feet. IHME emphasizes that social distancing is even more effective than masking increases.
The Daily Count of California infections will peak around February 9th, at 305,279 per day, which can be reduced to 189,558 per day with 80% masking, saving 115,721 a day, or 38% of infections. I am keeping all of the digits for convenience in calculating, allthough all of the projections can come with wide ranges.
Daily Deaths peak around March 2nd, where reported ones will be 152 per day, which can be reduced with 80% masking to 84 per day, or only 55%. True daily deaths on March 2nd will be 190 per day, reducible to 105 per day with 80% masking, or again 55%. Today, the IHME project 65 reported deaths per day, or 80 true deaths per day, both at 43% of their future peak values.
Hospital bed usage will peak a month later than infections, around March 6. Beds peak at 3,592, and ICU beds peak at 893, or 25%. While we are celebrating the current low hospitalization rate with massive infections, this seems to indicate that the peak hospitalizations and deaths will follow a month later than the infections.
