Global IHME Projections Include Almost Another Million Deaths from Omicron
This Article and those before it on IHME projections have now been superseded by later runs.
From January 3 to May 1, the Total Deaths Globally will increase by 0.93 million to 13.6 million. The Total Deaths are about double the recorded deaths.
Daily Deaths will peak around February 2nd, at 16,100 a day, which can be reduced to 14,900 a day with 80% masking, savin 1,200 lives a day.
Hospitalizations will peak around February 1 at 2.1 million beds, including 0.6 million ICU beds.
37 countries will face high or extreme stress on beds at some time, and 49 countries will face high or extreme stress on ICU beds.
Estimated infections peaked on January 13 at 81.1 million a day, which could be reduced to 67.8 million a day with 80% masking, saving 13.3 million per day, or 16%. Current masking is at 55%. 63% would accept a vaccine if it were available. Among possible options, masking is currently the most effective prevention as well as avoiding crowds. Then vaccinations.
IHME expects 50% newly infected in the next two months. It is estimated that 44% have already been infected at least once.
The fatality rate for Omicron is only 2% of that for Delta.
Asymptomatic cases are 80%-90%.
50% of hospitalizations may be incidental emissions of patients for other reasons.
