IHME Projections for the US on the January 14 run.
The January 14 projections by the IHME have US Total Deaths on May 1 at 1,028,463. On today, January 17, there were 984,428, giving 44,035 more to go. While it looks odd to keep all of these digits, it is the differences and ratios that are more accurate. With 80% masking, the Total Deaths on May 1 would be 1,025,835, saving 2,628 lives, or 6.0% of those to go. Current masking is at 45%.
Daily Total Deaths for the US in the model peaked at 1,875 a day on January 14. On today, January 17, they are 1,850 a day. On February 1, they will be 1,284 a day, and on March 1, 205 a day. With 80% masking, they will be the same on February 1, but reduced to 156 a day on March 1, or saving 49 a day or 24%.
Vaccinations of 1 or more shots are currently at 74% and will stay that way until May 1. Full vaccinations are at 64% today and will rise to 70% by May 1.
Hospitalizations are modeled to peak on January 25 at 225,302 beds, of which 56,241 or 25% will be ICU beds.
Estimated Infections for the US in the model peaked on January 2nd at 6,411,178 per day. Today, January 17th, they are at 4,299,683 a day, or 67% of the peak. On February 1, they will be 1,566,474 a day or 24% of the peak. With 80% masking on February 1, they would be 1,135,133 a day or 17.7% of the peak, saving 431,341 infections a day or 27.5%.
