IHME Projections for California from the January 14 Run
Total Deaths on May 1 are projected at 101,604. With 96,842 in the model today, January 17, there are 4,762 to go. With 80% masking, 147 lives or 3.1% are savable. Current masking is at 63% in California.
Total Daily Covid Deaths in California are expected to peak on January 26 at 170 per day. Today, they are modeled at 148 per day or 87% of the peak to which they are rising. On February 1, they will be coming down from the peak at 154 per day, or 91% of the peak. On March 1, they will be at only 22 a day, or 13% of the peak.
Vaccinations of 1 or more shots is at 82%, and projected to remain constant. Fully vaccinated is now at 67% and expected to increase to 77% by May 1. Mobility is down 16% but expected to go back to normal by May 1.
Hospitalizations are projected to peak on January 28th at 29,527, including 7,284 ICU beds, or 25%.
Estimated Infections in the model peaked on January 6th, at 882,000 per day. Today, January 17, they are at 625,000 a day, or 71% of the peak. 80% masking could reduce these by 10%. On February 1, infections will be at 197,000 per day, or 22% of the peak. With 80% masking, those could be reduced by 13%.
