IHME Projections for California from the January 14th Run

IHME Projections for California from the January 14 Run

Total Deaths on May 1 are projected at 101,604.  With 96,842 in the model today, January 17, there are 4,762 to go.  With 80% masking, 147 lives or 3.1% are savable.  Current masking is at 63% in California.

Total Daily Covid Deaths in California are expected to peak on January 26 at 170 per day.  Today, they are modeled at 148 per day or 87% of the peak to which they are rising.  On February 1, they will be coming down from the peak at 154 per day, or 91% of the peak.  On March 1, they will be at only 22 a day, or 13% of the peak.

Vaccinations of 1 or more shots is at 82%, and projected to remain constant.  Fully vaccinated is now at 67% and expected to increase to 77% by May 1.  Mobility is down 16% but expected to go back to normal by May 1.

Hospitalizations are projected to peak on January 28th at 29,527, including 7,284 ICU beds, or 25%.

Estimated Infections in the model peaked on January 6th, at 882,000 per day.  Today, January 17, they are at 625,000 a day, or 71% of the peak.  80% masking could reduce these by 10%.  On February 1, infections will be at 197,000 per day, or 22% of the peak.  With 80% masking, those could be reduced by 13%.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For two decades I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in reporting on those topics for a decade. For the last four years I have added science policy. Lately, I have been reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic of our times.
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