USA Briefing from IHME and Vaccination Efficiencies
We present further USA projection information from IHME on its January 13 briefing, and then add recent CDC information on Covid vaccination efficiencies.
The IHME on January 13 expected peaks in the next week or two in all states. The wave should be over in the next four weeks from then.
Vaccination increases and masking increases will have little effect in their projections. (However, masking increases and upgrades can have immediate safety effects for the reader, as well as getting a booster for the next few weeks.) Only eight states have masking mandates.
Disruptions in health care, schools, and businesses are appearing due to quarantining for five days. Incubation time for Omicron is 1-4 days, skewed toward one day. (Recent research reports show that the infected still have viral loads and are infectious for ten days.)
As of January 10th, 69% of people in the US have been infected at least once.
Infection detection on January 10th was only 14%.
Recent papers cited by the CDC show that in the US the booster shot is 90% effective at preventing hospitalization with the Omicron variant.
The booster is most beneficial against infection and death among Americans ages 50 and older. It is also most protective against Delta.
Officially only 39% have received their booster shots, but it may be higher.
For the Omicron variant, the booster raises protection against hospitalization from 57% after six months of tow doses, to 90%: see the figure on CNN below.
Unvaccinated Americans 50 years and older were 45 times more likely to be hospitalized than those who are fully vaccinated and boosted.
Remdesivir reduces the risk of hospitalization and death by 87% when given to the unvaccinated high risk Covid patients within seven days of the start of symptoms. It only cost $2,080 and takes three days of intravenous infusion. Quite a bargain compared to the free costs and instantaneous application of the vaccines and boosters.
In Orange County 87% of those hospitalized for Covid are unvaccinated.
