The IHME modeling of the Covid pandemic for California has the good features of being past the peak and rapid declining of the US predictions. Moreover, while being 1/8 of the US population, we only face 1/10 of the deaths. This is probably because we are more highly vaccinated, and more highly masked.
Total Deaths by May 1 in the model are 101,219, while today they are 98,028, leaving 3,191 to go. With an increase in masking to 80% from our relatively high 63% (compared to the US 45%), 106 lives or 3.3% could be saved.
Total Daily Deaths peak today, January 24th, at 184 per day in the model, which is 1/10 of the US rate today. On February 1, this will be 141 per day or 77% of the peak. On February 15 this will be 50 per day or 27% of the peak. On March 1, this will be 18 per day, or only 10% of the peak.
The fully vaccinated in Orange County agrees with that in California to 1%. In California, ages 65 and up ate 88% vaccinated, those 12 and up are 78% vaccinated, and all ages are 68% vaccinated, compared to 63% for the US. The IHME modeling has those with one dose or more fixed at 83%, while all age vaccinations will increase to 78% by May 1.
Hospitalizations in California are modeled to have peaked on January 18th, at 19,753, with 4,914 or 25% in ICUs. On February 1 this will be 13,662, or 70% of the peak. On February 15 this will be 7,072 or 36% of the peak. On March 11, this will be 3,008 or 15% of the peak.
Estimated Daily Infections for California peaked on December 31 at 0.98 million per day, or 2,450 per 100,000. On January 24, today, they are at 293,000 a day, or 733 per 100,000, or 30% of the peak. It is also about 1/8 of the US infections today. With 80% masking, the California value could have been reduced by 14%. On February 1, they will be at 17% of the peak, and on February 15, they will be at 6.5% of the peak, or 64,000 a day, or 160 per 100,000.
