IHME Projections of January 21 for the United States
Let’s start with the good news that national Total Daily Deaths, Hospitalizations, and Estimated Infections from the Omicron variant have already peaked, and are rapidly declining. Also, vaccinations of those of the most susceptible at ages 65 and up are at 88%, those 12 and up at 72%, and all ages at 63%. However, only 39% of those eligible for a Booster have taken one. In the model, the one shot or above rate stays fixed at 75%, while by May 1 the fully vaccinated will increase to 75%.
Total Covid Deaths in the model are about 20% greater than those that are recorded. Total modeled Covid deaths today are at 1,001,086 million, while those on May 1 are at 1,031,837, giving 30,751 more to go. We keep the full set of digits because the differences are more significant. If we scaled up to 80% masking from the current 45% masking over a week, that number of new deaths could be reduced by 2,571, or 8.4%.
Total Daily Deaths peaked on January 14 in the model, at 2,086 per day. Today, January 24th, they are at 1,829 a day or 88% of the peak. On February 1, when universities are considering reopening, they will be at 1,282 a day, or 61% of the peak. On February 15, that will be at 479 per day or 23% of the peak, and on March 1 at 193 per day or 9% of the peak. With 80% masking, the February 15 rate could be reduced to 78%, and the March 1 rate to 72%. There is generally a 17-21 lag between infections and deaths.
Hospitalization peaked on January 15, at 182,455 beds, with 43,756 or 24% being ICU beds. On January 24, this is modeled at 151,000 beds, with 37,000 or 24.5% being ICU beds. On February 1, this is 111,232 beds, or 61% of the peak, with 27,500 or 25% being ICU beds.
Estimated Infections per day in the model are many times those reported by testing. They peaked at 7.14 million per day on January 1. Today they are at 2.3 million per day, or 32% of the peak. 80% masking could have saved 28% of those. On February 1, they will be at 1.4 million per day, or 20% of the peak. 31% of those could be saved by 80% masking.
While many are engaged in wishful thinking that Omicron will be the end of the pandemic, the IHME warns that Covid will return by waning immunity and new variants which are highly likely to emerge in poorly vaccinated regions. This may occur during the next winter.
