IHME Projections for California on February 6, 2022
Total Deaths for California are projected at 105,087 for June 1. On today, February 6, there are 100,437 total deaths modeled, leaving 4,650 more deaths to go. This is 10% of the projected US deaths to June 1. California has 12% of the US population.
Daily Deaths peaked on January 30 at 220 per day. This is 9.0% of the US peak three days earlier. Today, Daily Deaths are modeled at 206 per day. On March 1 they will be 68 per day, or 31% of the peak, and on April 1 they will be 23 per day, or 10% of the peak.
California vaccinations of 1 dose or more are fixed at 84%. Full vaccinations today are at 69%, which will be 79% by June 1.
California mask use is at 66%. Social distancing is shown as decreased mobility by 22% from pre-pandemic mobility.
California Hospital Resources used by Covid patients peaked on January 19th at 18,658 beds, or 10.6% of the US peak two days earlier. The projection for ICU beds is 3,711 of those beds, or 20%. Today, there are 13,495 projected beds or 72% of the peak. ICUs today are 3,050 or 23% of the beds. On March 1, there will be 5,449 beds or 29% of the peak, with 1,289 ICUs or 24%. On April 1, there will be 2,142 beds or 11.5% of the peak, with 506 ICUs or 24% of the beds. On May 1 beds will be 981 or 5% of the peak, with 232 ICUs at 24%. On June 1, beds will be 479 or 2.6% of the peak, with 113 ICUs at 24%.
Estimated Daily Infections for California peaked on January 3rd at 601,000 per day. This is the same peak day as the US, with 13% of the US infections per day. On February 6, infections are modeled at 140,230 per day, or 23% of the peak. With 80% masking, those could have been reduced by 10,000 per day, or 7%. On March 1, Daily Infections will be 60,600 per day or 10% of the peak. On April 1, they will be 25,500 per day or 4.2% of the peak. On May 1, they will be 13,000 per day or 2.2% of the peak. On June 1, they will be 6,400 per day, or 1.1% of the peak.
