IHME Projections for Canada on February 8th
Canada has a population of 38.0 million, or 11.5% of the US. It is close to the California population of 40 million.
88% of Canadians have received at least one shot, and 82% are fully vaccinated. Compare that to only 64% for the US fully vaccinated.
Canadian masking is at a large 79% compared to 50% for the US. Canadian mobility is down 23% from before the pandemic.
Estimated Daily Infections peaked on December 26th at 283,858 per day or 747 per 100,000 per day. Today, February 8th, they are modeled at 81,395 per day or 28.7% of the peak. On March 1, they will be 49,749 per day or 17.5% of the peak. On April 1 they will be 26,127 per day or 9.2% of the peak.
The US peak of Estimated Daily Infections occurred on January 3rd at 4.70 million per day, or 1,424/100,000 per day. The Canadian peak is only 52.5% of the US peak estimated daily infection rate per 100,000.
US states are dropping masking requirements when the US Estimated Daily Infections reach 10% on March 1 or 4% of the peak on April 1. Taking into account that the Canadian peak infection rate is about half of the peak US infection rate per 100,000, today their rate is equivalent to 15% for the US, for March 1 it will be equivalent to 8.9% for the US, and on April 1 it will be equivalent to 4.8% for the US.
The Canadian Truck Driver protest could be ended if the government announced removing the masking mandate on March 1, equivalent to what some US states will be doing then. Most of the mask mandates are in fact provincial. The objections to mandated vaccinations for those crossing the US border was already solved by the main trucking company, by just assigning the unvaccinated truck drivers other routes.
Total Canadian Deaths on June 1 are modeled at 61,232, and today at 57,989, giving 3,243 more deaths to go. However, Reported deaths on June 1 are 36,266, and 24,521 today, giving 1,745 more to go. The Total to Reported Deaths on June 1 have a ratio of 1.69. The ratio of deaths to go for Total to Reported is 1.86.
(While not a direct comparison, the Total Deaths to go by June 1 for Canada is 7.0% of the Total Daily Deaths to go from February 4 for the US.)
Total Daily Deaths are modeled to have peaked on January 24 at 285 per day. Today they are 138 or 48% of the peak. On March 1 they will be 41 per day or 14% of the peak. On April 1 they will be 22 per day or 7.7% of the peak.
Hospitalizations peaked on January 22nd at 13,702 beds, with 2,148 ICUs or 15.7%. This was 36.1/100,000 of the Canadian population. The hospitalization peak followed the infection peak by 28 days or four weeks. Here is a table of these hospitalizations by Date, number of Beds, number of ICUs, ICU Percentage, Percentage of the peak, and Beds Per 100,000.
| Date | Beds | ICUs | % ICUs | % Peak | Per 100k |
| Jan. 22 | 13,702 | 2,148 | 15.7% | 100% | 36.1 |
| Feb. 8 | 8,839 | 1,496 | 16.9% | 64.5% | 23.2 |
| March 1 | 3,700 | 635 | 17.2% | 27.0% | 9.7 |
| April 1 | 2,007 | 345 | 17.2% | 14.6% | 5.3 |
| May 1 | 1.053 | 181 | 17.2% | 7.7% | 2.8 |
By comparison, the US peaked on January 17th, 5 days earlier, at 176,709 beds, or 53.5 per 100,000. So Canada’s 36.1 per 100,000 peak was 67% or 2/3 of the American peak per 100,000 population.
