IHME Summaries of Covid for the US, California, Canada, and Russia
The IHME estimates the total number of people who have been infected at least once with the Covid variants as of January 31. For the US it is 72%, 67% in California, only 38% or half of the US percent in Canada, and 91% in Russia.
All of the numbers given below are from the IHME model simulation and projections.
The infection detection rate is 13% for the US, 14% for California, 11% in Canada, and 4% in Russia.
IHME now models the symptomatic percentage of the Omicron variant from 15%-25%.
They model the Omicron to Delta death rate at 0.023 or 2.3%, and the hospitalization rate at 0.114 or 11.4%.
Covid is about 40% of the weekly deaths in the US, 33% in California, 35% in Canada, and 33% in Russia.
The US infection rate peaked on January 3rd at 4.7 million/day or 1,424/100,000 per day.
The US hospitalization number peaked on January 1 at 177,000 or 53.5/100,000.
67% of the US population is fully vaccinated.
We may as well add February 11th CDC news that the booster shots do keep one 91% from hospitalization the first two months against Omicron, and 78% from needing hospitalization after four or more months. Without the booster, the initial 71% protection from hospitalization after two doses of vaccine falls to 58% at four months, and 54% after five months.
The CDC news on Omicron cases that were treated by visits to an Emergency Department of Urgent Care had effectiveness in prevention for two doses starting at 69% decreasing to 66% at four months and to 31% at five months and beyond. For adding the Booster dose, prevention started at 87% and decreased to 66% at four months and then to 31% at five months and beyond.
The California infection rate peaked on January 3rd at 600,000 per day, or 1,500/100,000 per day, close to that of the US.
The California hospitalization number peaked on January 19th at 18,700, or 46.6/100,000, close to that of the US.
69% of Californians are fully vaccinated.
The Canadian infection rate peaked on December 26th at 284,000 per day, or 747/100,000 per day, or 52% of the per capita US infection rate.
Canadian hospitalizations peaked on January 22nd, close to the peak date of California, at 36.1/100,000, or 0.67 or 2/3 of the US per capita hospitalizations.
82% of Canadians are fully vaccinated.
Russian infections peaked on January 20th at 2,650/100,000 per day. This is 86% higher than the US rate at its peak, or almost double. It is two and a half weeks after the US peak.
Russian hospitalizations peaked on February 5 at 96/100,000, which is 79% higher than the US peak per capita, or again, almost double. They are just past their peak.
Only 47% of Russians are fully vaccinated, and their Sputnik-V vaccine is only 67% protective against severe disease.
