The Russian Invasion of Ukraine, and China with the Olympics
These are just my opinions and speculations, not based on any inside knowledge.
Update February 22nd. Czar Putin has ruled that the previous Ukraine provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk should be independent, without the populace voting on that. Without their having a constitution or an elected government, Putin decided that they have invited Russia in as Peacekeeper. The Oblasts or Provinces have triple the area of the presently occupied areas by the dissidents there. Putin also says they will also take the Sea of Azov port at Mariupol’. The Provinces hold 3.8 million, whereas the dissident occupied areas sum to 1.33 million, but these are from different sources and I have not confirmed them. A poll of Russians showed that only 10% want to make war with Ukraine. Here is a map of the Pink dissident held areas and the Orange Oblasts.
Update February 21. The day after the end of the Chinese Winter Olympics. Putin and I think the Putin Duma (Parliament) recognize the separatist regions of Ukraine, namely Donetsk (918,536 population) and Luhansk (409,895) as independent Peoples Republics. He also ordered Russian forces into these new Republics for Peacekeeping. Also, the Russians have a list of Ukrainians to kill or imprison upon conquest of Ukraine. What can Americans do? We can demand that Fox News drop Tucker (Moscow) Carlson. A poll shows that 40% of Democrats watch Fox News. That is quite a leverage. A poll in Russia showed that only 10% of Russians approve of invading Ukraine. Feb. 21 was also the day when Ukraine expelled the Russian leader of their country in 2014.
Update February 20th. Russia has already started the war by putting denial of access attacks on Ukrainian Defense computers and the main Ukrainian bank. Shelling has already increased from rebel forces in Donbas. Russia is also evacuating women and children from Donbas, and releasing propaganda of Ukrainian attacks on Russians in Donbas or even in Ukraine. The TV maps of forces do seem to show Russian forces in Belarus near to Kaliningrad. They also show forces in Transnistria, a breakaway strip of Moldova between the Dniester river and Ukraine, which is 29% Russian and aligned with Russia. It’s population is 347,000.
Update February 18.
President Biden said that intelligence says that Russia will invade Ukraine. Biden cited 150,000 troops nearby. MSNBC said 190,000, and later, half of the Russian military. Biden has never elaborated the buildup in terms of different types of military equipment, which we probably know.
The speculation that the Russian invasion could occur near Wednesday, February 18th, could be based on the weather report for Kyiv below. There have been discussions that the tanks and equipment do better on frozen ground and we see that freezing nights will occur during the next week. We see many pictures of Russian equipment moving rapidly on the highways, so that may not be that relevant.
It is quite obvious that the US and Europeans in NATO can’t defend Ukraine if it becomes part of NATO since it is surrounded on three sides by Russia, Russian collaborating Belarus, Russian Crimea, and the Russian dominated Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Since the Russian takeover of Crimea and the Russian separatists takeover in the Donbas regions of Ukraine in 2014, they have not been dislodged, despite sanctions on Russia and the war with Donbas.
Just like the US got involved in Vietnam for 20 years and stayed by the Domino Theory, we cannot defend every partial Democracy, especially if they have regions where the people are not all on our side. We even went in after France failed and left. The other example is our 20 year entrapment in Afghanistan. We even went in after Russia failed and left.
While most Ukrainians are now disfavoring Russia, they have only been independent since 1991, or 31 years ago. They may not be that concerned if they have to deal with Russia again. Their population of only 44 million compared to Russia’s 144 million, and their lack of development, leaves them with small military strength, compared to Russia’s well armored weapons and strongly ammunition supplied 130,000 surrounding troops and air resources.
Just like Russia signed a non-agresssion pact with Hitler at the start of WWII, in order to give Russia time to arm and prepare for a German attack, the so-called negotiations over Putin’s unreasonable demands over all of Eastern Europe and NATO, may well have just been stalling and checking that the US and Germany weren’t going to go all-in to defend Ukraine. Meanwhile, Putin gained a free month in deploying troops where any well armed state would have insisted in preemptively counter-attacking first.
Russia supplies 44% of natural gas used for heating in the European Union. The US still needs two more years of building up Liquid Natural Gas exports to give a large amount to Europe, and Europe needs to build up more ports to receive the gas. Putin realized that he had to act before that in order to keep up that leverage with Germany and Europe. Also, gas and oil sales in Europe give Russia about 20% of GDP, and about half of the government’s funding. Oil has now reached $95 a barrel. European natural gas had gone up to $60 a unit (mmBTU, million metric BTUs), but is back down to $30 per unit. One mmBTU is 10 therms, so that is the same as $3 per therm. US natural gas, by comparison, is around $5 per unit, or $0.50 per therm as a national average. On January 1, 2022, SoCalGas for Southern California underwent a doubling of natural gas prices to 83.569 cents per therm from what they were a year ago. February, that dropped to 60.655 cents per therm.
China, Putin, and the Olympics’ peaceful and unifying games.
China’s Xi Jinping started the world unifying games by greeting Putin and apparently backing his natural gas sales to China and economic support that would allow him to invade Ukraine without serious consequences. China was consuming 11 bcm (billion cubic meters) of natural gas, and has now increased that to 48 bcm, over a factor of four times more. That much gas is about 10% of what Europe’s annual demand level is.
Update, February 19th; China has increased it natural gas purchases from Russia by 150%. But today, Xi Jinping said that they did not approve of Russia’s possible invasion of Ukraine.
The amazing press and TV coverage is that there was is a single bad test of a teenage Russian skater before the Olympics, rather than that Xi and therefore the entire Olympic Host Country of China welcomed Putin and okayed the most serious European war since WWII on the same day that Xi is starting the Olympics.
Just like Germany’s start of the WWII, Japan joined for its Pacific Ocean and Asian invasions, since the US would be otherwise engaged, and also Mussolini and Italy joined in.
China has its own goals of dominating the South China Sea and retaking Taiwan. They may try to capitalize on the US’s involvement in Europe.
Furthermore, Russia’s easy Blitzkreig and takeover of Ukraine may only be a start to his overtaking of other targets like he did with Crimea. Moldova is not in NATO and is next to Ukraine. That is connected to the port of Odessa on the Black Sea. Russia wants the North-Eastern side of Estonia where Russian speakers may predominate. Russia also may want Southern Estonia where there is the highway link to the major Russian port and naval base at Kaliningrad.
You might ask why Putin is not waiting for losing presidential contender and buddy Trump to regain the presidency in 2024. He may realize that Trump could just lose again, and this time, Trump cannot try to use all of the King’s horses and all of the King’s men to put his Presidency back together again. Putin may also think that just as General Milley was afraid that the crazed king might resort to nuclear weapons, he should also be afraid of that.
A major difference between this and previous wars is that everybody has a photo and video capable cell phone. Even when the Russians knock out the cell network, there will be many refugees fleeing the conflict and destruction into all neighboring countries. These photos and videos will soon find their way onto social media, as already are pictures of Russian military convoys. The horrors of war will no longer take years to come out. Russia is going to be savaged worldwide for their actions and destruction. As pointed out on the news, the invasion and takeover of an independent country and member of the United Nations is illegal under international law. Ukraine is also a member of the Council of Europe.
So Putin spent months telling us that he wouldn’t invade, but he not only secured the dissident area, but now tells us he will only take the two Oblasts, plus a port. That is most likely another ruse to get us not to respond too much. Later, he could easily continue his invasion. The justification of history or language is not recognized as a valid reason for invasion and takeover of a democracy. I say that as I sit in my home in Southern California. If applied here, Mexico would have a right to take over this region again. Actually, the UK could retake at least the thirteen colonies again.
