IHME Projects Sharp Rise in Covid Cases in China
Update, March 15: China is just starting to see increased cases, so the projections here may actually be more accurate if shifted to later dates. However, we now note that in the IHME model, China was taken as not responding to the infections with social distancing or decreased mobility. That is definitely not the case. Jilin province (24 million), Shenzhen (17.5 million), the tech hub next to Hong Kong, and Dongguan (10 million) have lockdowns and testing. Shanghai has restrictions. That kind of response should reduce the projections. We also note that of the new Total Covid Deaths Globally projected for March 12 to June 1 of 790,000, the China projection of new Total Deaths over that period is 473,000, which is 58% of the new Global Total Deaths projected. China’s great response should therefore greatly reduce the new Global total for that period also.
While China sticks by its number of reported Covid deaths as less than 5,000, the IHME now models triple that as Total Deaths. What is far worse, is that IMHE predicts a steep rise in Estimated Infections which doesn’t peak until March 6, at 38 million per day. Already, at February 20th, IHME estimates 8.4 million infections per day and rising rapidly. After the peak they fall off rapidly as elsewhere with the Omicron variant.
It is said that the main China variant is BA2, the second Omicron variant. That may spread more rapidly than Omicron but remain no more severe than Omicron.
Below is a table of Dates, Estimated Infections per day on those dates, as well as the Percent of the peak estimated infections per day.
| Dates | Estimated Infections/day | Percent of the Peak |
| Feb. 20 | 8,440,000 | 22.3% |
| March 6 | 37, 800,000 | 100% |
| March 15 | 28,400,000 | 75% |
| April 1 | 12,200,000 | 32.3% |
| April 15 | 3,850,000 | 10.2% |
| May 1 | 1,100,000 | 2.9% |
| June 1 | 169,000 | 0.45% |
Hospitalization if China from Covid is projected by IHME to peak on March 21, two weeks after the Estimated Infection peaks. We present a table of the Dates, the number of Beds, the number of ICU beds, and the Percent of the beds used compared to those at the peak date. The ratio of ICU beds to total beds is about 18.4%.
| Dates | Beds | ICUs | Percent |
| March 21 | 1,290,000 | 236,000 | 100% |
| April 1 | 1,010,000 | 185,000 | 78.6% |
| May 1 | 146,000 | 26,800 | 11.4% |
| June 1 | 15,700 | 2,870 | 1.22% |
Total Daily deaths are projected to peak on March 31, 10 days after the peak in Hospitalizations. There is not a separate China Breifing to see the IHME assumptions. At the peak, the Total Daily Deaths are 15,929 deaths per day, while the Reported deaths per day would be only 4,975, or at 31% of the Total Daily Deaths. We present a table of Dates, rounded Total Daily Deaths, and Reported Daily Deaths from the IHME model.
| Dates | Total Daily Deaths | Reported Daily Deaths |
| March 31 | 16,000 | 5,000 |
| May 1 | 3,000 | 925 |
| June 1 | 500 | 80 |
For the peak March 31 and May 1 dates, the Reported Daily Deaths are about a third of the Total Daily Deaths.
We show a table of Dates and Total Deaths per day on February 20, March 15, March 31, May 1, and June 1, and their Percent of the June 1 Total.
| Dates | Total Deaths | Percent of June 1 |
| February 20 | 15,900 | 3.36% |
| March 15 | 19,300 | 4.08% |
| April 1 | 186,000 | 39.3% |
| May 1 | 441,000 | 93.2% |
| June 1 | 473,000 | 100% |
China has vaccinations at one dose or more at 93%, and fully vaccinated at a high value of 88%. Similarly, mask use is at a high 92%.
The Sinopharm vaccine is two doses and said to be 78.1% effective in the New York Times table. The IHME model has them as only 53% effective against severe disease from Omicron, and 35% effective against infection. The Sinovac vaccine or Coronavac is said to be 83.5% effective in Turkey, but only 50.65% in Brazil. In IHME it is taken as 37% effective against severe disease of Omicron, and 24% against infection. CansSinoBIO is one shot, and said to be 57.5% effective against symptomatic Covid and 91.7% effective against severe disease by The NY Times. The IHME model has CanSino as 48% effective against Omicron severe disease, and 32% effective against Omicron infection. The NY Times values are probably from the early initial Coronavirus.
