IHME California Covid Projections Continue Rapid Die-off of Omicron
First of all, the Total Deaths modeled in the IHME are about 20% greater than the Recorded Deaths. The IHME projections for Total Deaths in California by June 1 are 105,069, which are 1,720 more over the next three months than the modeled Totoal Deaths of 103,349 on March 1.
Total Daily Deaths per day peaked on February 9th, or three weeks ago, at 263 per day. This has decreased rapidly as shown in the following table, with Daily Deaths and percent of the peak.
| Date | Daily Deaths | Percent of Peak |
| Feb. 9 | 263 | 100% |
| March 1 | 86 | 33% |
| March 15 | 38 | 14% |
| April 1 | 18 | 7% |
| May 1 | 7 | 3% |
Vaccinations on March 1 in California are at 84% for one or more shots, and 71% for fully vaccinated. The fully vaccinated are modeled to rise ot 79% by June 1. Mask use is at 62%. Mobility is decreased by only 16%, which will vanish by May 7th when we return to normal.
Daily Infections only have an 11% detection rate. The model shows 70% of Californians were infected at least once by February 14th. Estimated Daily Infections for California in the model peaked on January 9th at 187,000 per day. That is a month before peak deaths. The numbers of Estimated Daily Infections as time goes on and their percent of the peak are shown in the following table.
| Date | Estimated Daily Infections | Percent of the Peak |
| January 9 | 572,000 | 100% |
| February 1 | 187,000 | 33% |
| February 15 | 87,000 | 15% |
| March 1 | 44,000 | 7.7% |
| March 15 | 26,000 | 4.5% |
| April 1 | 16,000 | 2.8% |
| May 1 | 7,800 | 1.4% |
| June 1 | 4,200 | 0.7% |
The use of Hospital Beds in California peaked on January 19th at 16,100 per day, 10 days after Estimated Daily Infections peaked, and three weeks before Daily Deaths peaked. ICUs on January 19th were at 2,500, or 16% of beds. The following table shows the temporal evolution of beds and the percent of the peak on those days. The ratio of ICU beds to total beds starts at 16% and rises to 20.5%.
| Date | Beds | Percent of Peak |
| January 19 | 16,100 | 100% |
| February 1 | 13,900 | 86% |
| February 15 | 8,600 | 53% |
| March 1 | 4,000 | 25% |
| March 15 | 2,100 | 13% |
| April 1 | 1,100 | 7.0% |
| May 1 | 510 | 3.1% |
| June 1 | 280 | 1.7% |
The IHME says that the decrease in infections is due to the declining number of people to infect.
