Global Projections for the Covid Pandemic from the IHME

Global Projections for the Covid Pandemic from the IHME

The IHME scooped this subject by their paper in the March 10, 2022 Lancet by Director Christopher J.L. Murray, Haidong Wang, and Katherine Paulsen, which analyzes Excess Deaths over normal which have occurred up until December 31, 2021.  While the Reported Covid Deaths were 5.94 million globally, they estimated that Excess Deaths were 18.2 million, or 3 times as many.  That is greater than the Total Covid Deaths to Reported Covid Deaths of today in the IHME model ratio of 2.35, below.

Among the 7 countries with the largest number of excess deaths, the worst countries in Excess Mortality per 100,000 were:  Russia, 375; Mexico, 325; Brazil 187, and the United States, 171.  The Global average was 120 per 100,000.

The standard IHME analysis which we have been following has Total Covid Deaths on March 12 as 15.35 million, with Reported Covid Deaths at 6.55 million, giving a ratio of 2.35.  The projection for June 1 is 16.14 m Total Deaths to 6.86 m Reported Deaths, giving the same 2.35 ratio.  The new Total Covid Deaths from March 12 to June 1 are then 790,000 globally.

What struck us to write this report is that the Global Total Daily Deaths have a second recent peak coming on March 28 at 8,226 per day.  This follows a local minimum on March 16 of 4,877 per day.  Here is a table of Dates, Total Daily Deaths per day, and Percent of the Maximum.

Global mask use is at 62%.  Global vaccinations are at one or more shots 63%, and fully vaccinated at 57%.  By June 1, fully vaccinated are expected to rise to 60%.

Estimated Daily Infections Peaked on March 5 at 50.8 million per day globally.  Here is a table of how that is modeled to drop in the future.

Global Hospital Covid beds are at 1.41 million beds on March 12, with 0.345 m being ICUs, or 24.5%.  Beds will peak on March 20 at 1.79 million.  We give a table of the decline in beds and their percentage of the peak in the future.