IHME Forecasts 615,000 Covid Deaths in China by July 1
The new March 21 IHME projection has increased the death toll from Covid for China and pushed it two and a half months further into the future than the run from a month ago. They now also have the Total Deaths and Reported Deaths exactly agreeing, whereas before, they only had the Reported Deaths as 1/3 of the Total Deaths. The IHME still has no social distancing or reduction in mobility for China included in their modeling. The increase in masking from the present 59% to 80% could reduce new deaths from today to July 1 to 56% of those projected, and save 265,000 lives.
China’s Covid Total Deaths are modeled at 614,988 on July 1. After subtracting the March 23 Total Deaths of 10,247, gives 604,741 new Total Deaths by July 1. With 80% masking, the Total Deaths on July 1 could be reduced to 349,369, or to 339,322 new deaths from today, March 23rd. That would save 265,419 lives, or 56% of the new deaths to July 1.
The Global Deaths to go from March 23rd to July 1 are 749,000. The China deaths to go over this period are 605,000, which is 81% of the Global deaths to go.
Daily Deaths peak on June 20th at 17,578 per day. With 80% masking, the peak value could be reduced to 11,255 per day, or to 64%, saving 6,323 lives per day. On July 1, Daily Deaths will still be at 14,814 per day or 84% of the peak rate, which could be reduced to 11,255 per day with 80% masking, saving 3,559 per day, or 32%.
The Vaccination rate is modeled to stay constant until July 1 at 82% with one or more shots, and 77% fully vaccinated. Masking is assumed to stay constant at 59%, and social distancing is at 0%.
Hospitalization beds are modeled to peak at 332,893 (a third of a million) on June 9, when ICUs will also peak at 49,304, or 15%. Rising hospitalizations will pass roughly half of the peak, or 160,000 on May 17, or about 3 weeks earlier. We note that the Daily Deaths peak on June 20th is 11 days after hospitalizations peak.
Estimated Infections are modeled to peak at 10,400,000 per day on May 23rd, or two and a half weeks before hospitalizations peak. With 80% masking, that would be reduced to 6,800,000 per day, or to 65% of present modeled infections per day at the peak.
The IHME now models Hong Kong separately from China as well. Their vaccination rates are taken as the same as China overall, or 82% and 77% fully. Hong Kong’s mobility is now reduced by 28%. Their mask use is at a very high 84%. By July 1, Hong Kong Total Covid deaths will be 7,810. Subtracting today’s 6,276, gives 1,534 new ones. They are already beyond their peaks.
