April IHME Shows China Covid Projected Deaths Reduced to 28% of the March Projection
Total Deaths
The March IHME Covid projection for China showed 615,000 deaths to July 1, but did not include any reduction in mobility. This was contrary to China’s very tight mobility reduction in infected areas. Now, IHME runs with a 50% mobility reduction for China, and that has reduced the deaths to 170,000 by August 1, or 28% of the earlier projection. With an increase in masking now from the current 59% to 80%, the deaths could be further reduced to 118,000, saving 51,000 lives, or 30% of the projected deaths with current masking.
For China, the IHME takes Total Deaths to be the same as the Recorded Deaths.
Total deaths to August 1 are only 1/8,200 of China’s population, or 12 per 100,000.
As of April 9, IHME total Covid deaths for China are 31,083. When subtracted from 169,147 projected for August 1, this gives 138,064 more to go. With an increase to 80% masking, this would be 31,083 subtracted from 118,417, giving 87,334 more to go, again saving 50,730 deaths, but now 37% of those to go.
Globally, there are 392,974 Covid deaths to occur from April 9 to August 1. The 138,064 modeled for China are 35% or about a third of that total.
Daily Deaths
Daily Covid Deaths are modeled to peak on April 30th, or three weeks from now, at 1,648 per day. On April 9, they are modeled at 525 per day, or 32% of the peak. We give a table of Dates, Deaths per Day, the Percent of the Peak, the Daily Deaths with 80% masking, and the Percent of the projected Deaths that would occur if 80% masking was started on April 9.
| Date | Deaths/Day | % of Peak | D/D 80% | % of D/D 80% |
| April 9 | 525 | 32% | 525 | 100% |
| April 30 | 1,648 | 100% | 1,578 | 96% |
| June 1 | 1,460 | 89% | 837 | 57% |
| July 1 | 1,107 | 67% | 465 | 42% |
| August 1 | 731 | 44% | 249 | 34% |
We note that even by August 1 there are still 731 deaths per day, or 44% of the rate at the peak.
In China, 96% have received at least one vaccine dose, and 90% are fully vaccinated.
Hong Kong
The model had the death rate in Hong Kong peaking on March 12, and it is now well past that. Total deaths in Hong Kong are modeled to be 9,479 by August 1. That will be only 5.6% of China’s Covid deaths by August 1. On April 9 there were 8.612 Hong Kong Covid deaths in the model, leaving only 867 to go. With a population of 7.48 million, Hong Kong’s total Covid deaths will be 127 per 100,000.
Estimated Infections Per Day
Estimated Infections in the model for China have a flat peak around April 24, at about 663,000 per day, or two-thirds of a million per day. With 80% masking, that could be reduced to 438,000 a day, or to 66% or two-thirds at the peak.
We give a table of Dates, Estimated Infections per Day, Percent of Peak Infections, Infections per day in the 80% masking case, and Percent of Infections in the 80% masking case.
| Dates | Infections/D | % of Peak | Inf/D 80% | % of Inf/D |
| April 9 | 637,965 | 96% | 541,200 | 85% |
| April 24 | 662,503 | 100% | 438,165 | 66% |
| May 1 | 653,245 | 99% | 389,662 | 60% |
| June 1 | 486,663 | 73% | 205,092 | 42% |
| July 1 | 292,491 | 44% | 100,748 | 34% |
| August 1 | 171,784 | 26% | 51,920 | 30% |
We see that even three months after the peak, by August 1, the infection rate is still 26% of that at the peak.
With China’s population of 1.40 billion, the peak infection rate is only 1/2,100 per day, or 48 per 100,000 per day.
Hospital Use
Hospital bed use in the model peaks on May 7, but is relatively flat for the whole month of May. May 7 is two weeks after the flat peak in Estimated Infections. Daily Deaths peak on April 30th, which is three weeks after the Hospital Beds peak. ICU beds are fixed at 21% of total beds.
We present a table of Dates, Beds Occupied, and the Percentage of Beds at the Peak.
| Dates | Covid Beds in Use | Percent of Peak |
| April 9 | 12,866 | 54% |
| May 1 | 23,745 | 99% |
| May 7 | 23,937 | 100% |
| June 1 | 21,397 | 89% |
| July 1 | 14,480 | 60% |
| August 1 | 8,642 | 36% |
Hospital bed use at peak is only at 1/60,000 of China’s population, or 1.7 per 100,000.
