World Projections of Total Pandemic Deaths Versus Reported Deaths
The NY Times reports that the World Health Organization was ready to report the Total Deaths from the Covid pandemic, but was held up by India. The Times also said that the report was based on the U. Of Washington projections, which would be the IHME projections which we have used in all of our articles. So, we report those projections here for the World or Global, and for countries indicated as having severe discrepancies, namely India, Indonesia, and Egypt.
We have already reported from the latest IHME projections for China, where the BA2 variant is growing, but the Chinese are fighting it by severe lockdowns of 25 million in Shanghai, and 400 million across a country of 1,400 million. Otherwise, the IHME has projected deaths as small and still declining elsewhere. So this article is mainly about the discrepancies between reported and total deaths, as of today’s date, April 18, in countries which are also leaning to autocracy.
Global Total Deaths
Globally, masking is at an average of 47%, mobility is up 7% over pre-pandemic, and and average of 62% will be fully vaccinated by August 1. The model assumes that 80% of the fully vaccinated would get a booster by six months later. As of April 4, they calculate that 58% would have already been infected.
Today there are a modeled estimated Total Deaths from the pandemic of 17,425,089, while reported are 6,788,627, giving only 40% reported. We keep full figures, since differences matter for the small projections of future deaths, assuming no serious new dominant strains emerging.
The Global total deaths by August 1 are modeled at 17,425,089 giving 346,585 more to go. Current world masking is …. Stepping this up to 80% would reduced Total Deaths by August 1 to 17,286,372, saving 138,717 lives, or 40% of those to go.
With a world population of 7.90 billion, the Global ratio of Total Deaths is 221/100,000.
Total Deaths in India
By August 1, India is projected to be 69% fully vaccinated, with 49% masking, but mobility increased by 60% compared to pre-pandemic times.
On April 18, they are modeled at 3,641,376 Total Deaths, but with only 517,756 Reported, which is only 14.2% of the total, or about 1 in 7.
On August 1, they are modeled at 3,654,776 Total Deaths, giving a small number of 13,400 more to go. With 80% masking, the August 1 number would be 3,648,662, saving an extra 6,144 deaths, or 45.6%.
With a population of 1.38 billion, the Total Death ratio is 265/100,000.
Total Deaths in the United States of America
The US is projected by August 1 at 73% totally vaccinated, with masking at 23%, and mobility at no change from pre-pandemic.
Total Deaths in the US on April 18 are modeled at 1,253,301, while Reported Deaths are 984,871, giving a ratio of mostly detected at 78.6%, in sharp contrast to autocracies.
Projected Total Deaths on August 1 are 1,270,032, giving 16,731 more to go. With 80% masking, the August 1 number would be reduced to 1,262,107, saving 7,925 lives, or 47.4% of those to go.
With a population of 329 million, the US Total Death rate is a comparative high of 385/100,000. That is 71% higher than the World rate, and about 45% higher than the nations listed above. Before the pandemic, we were rated as the best prepared nation.
Total Deaths in Indonesia
In Indonesia 74% are fully vaccinated, 65% are masked, and mobility is only up 1% over prepandemic.
Total Deaths in Indonesia is modeled at 677,353 on April 18, while the Reported is 155,814, giving only a 23.0% being reported.
By August 1, total deaths would only increase to 679,566, giving only 2,203 more to go. With 80% masking, this would be reduced to 679,176, or giving only 390 more to go, or 17.7% of those to go with present masking.
With a population of 274 million, the August 1 Total Deaths would be 248/100,000.l
Japan
This is the counter example to the belief that only autocratic regimes have severe discrepancies between Total Deaths and Recorded Deaths.
Japan has 77% fully vaccinated, masking at a very high 91%, and 0% mobility change.
The April 18 Total Deaths are modeled at 153,825, while Reported Deaths are at a very low 29,078, or only 19% of Total Deaths!
Projected Total Deaths at August 1 are 160,415, giving 6,590 more to go. The 80% masking option is not usable here, since they already far exceed that at 91%.
With a population of 126 million, Japan’s Total Death Rate is at a very low 128/100,000, less than a half of the other countries here, and a third that of the United States.
Total Deaths in Egypt
In Egypt, 46% are projected to be fully vaccinated by August 1. Masking is at a low of 22%. Also, mobility is up 30% compared to pre-pandemic.
As of April 18, Total Deaths are modeled at 256,932, while Reported Deaths are modeled at only 24,592, which is only 9.6% of the Total Deaths on the Nile.
By August 1, total deaths are modeled at 262,634, giving 5,702 more to go. With 80% masking, the August 1 number would be 259,281, saving 2,353 lives, or 41.3% of those to go.
With a population of 102 million, the expected Total Death ratio is 257/100,000.
Viet Nam
Viet Nam is 76% fully vaccinated, 68% masked, and with no change in mobility.
On April 18, the IHME model has Total Deaths at 83,206, while Reported Deaths are at 44,610, giving a 54% detection rate.
Total Deaths on August 1 are at 86,092, leaving 2,886 to go. With 80% masking, the Total Deaths would be reduced to 85,519 on August 1, saving 573 lives, or 20% of those to go.
With a population of 97.3 million, Viet Nam has a projected August 1 Total Death Rate of only 84/100,000.
Total Deaths in Turkey
In Turkey, by August 1, fully vaccinated is at 67%. Fixed is masking at 46%, and a mobility increase of 18% over pre-pandemic.
On April 18, Total Deaths are modeled at 192,832, while Reported Deaths are at 98,664, or 51% of Total Deaths.
Total Deaths on August 1 are 195,457, giving 2,625 to go. With 80% masking, this would be 194,382, saving 1,075 lives, or 41% of the future deaths.
Out of a population of 84.3 million, Turkey will have a Total Death rate of 232/100,000.
Iran
Iran has 71% fully vaccinated, but a low masking of 37% and mobility up 27% over per-pandemic by August 1.
Their April 18 Total Deaths are modeled at 252,311, while Reported Deaths are at 140,431, giving a 56% detection rate.
Iran’s August 1 projection is at 253,811 Total Deaths, leaving 1,500 more to go. With 80% masking, the August 1 projection would be 252,813, saving 998 lives, or 67% of the 1,500 more to go.
With a population of 84.0 million, Iran’s Total Death Rate on August 1 will be 302/100,000.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia has 69% fully vaccinated, 65% masking, and plus 7% in mobility.
Its modeled total deaths on April 18 are 28,766 while reported deaths are only 9,048, giving only a 31% detection rate.
It’s modeled August 1 total deaths are 28,865 giving only 99 more to go. With 80% masking, that would be reduced to 28,826, saving 39 lives or 39% of those to go.
With a population of 34.8 million, Saudi Arabia’s Total Death Rate becomes a low 83/100,000.
