IHME May 6 Run of Covid Projections for the US, China, India, and Global
We take the IHME Total Death projections for September 1, 2022, and compare it to the projected Reported Deaths for the World and leading population countries. We also calculate the per 100 thousand (100k) deaths. We look at the future deaths to go from May 8, and look at the percent of those savable by 80% masking starting now.
USA
By September 1, 2022, 74% of Americans will be fully vaccinated. Masking is only at 19% and is modeled to stay that way. Mobility hardly is changed at only up 1%.
A new study shows that 9 Americans on average are severely affected by the death of one person from Covid-19.
Currently, if you are unvaccinated, you are 53 times more likely to die from Covid than if you are vaccinated.
On September 1, the Total Death Projection is 1,298,069, while Reported Deaths are 1,019,629, or 79%.
On May 8, the Total Deaths in the model are 1,263,618, leaving 34,446 more to go. If the US went to 80% masking now, 15,656 of those lives could be saved, or 45%.
Peak total deaths have a broad plateau around May 20, when they will be 494 per day.
On September 1, there are then 393 Total Deaths per 100k of population in the US.
China
China has a projected September 1 fully vaccinated rate of 86%, with masking at 59% and highly reduced mobility of -58%.
On September 1, Total Deaths in the run are 28,269, whereas Reported are at 23,308, or 82% of the Total. With an increase in masking to 80%, 2,678 are savable.
Last month, the IHME modeling had predicted 169,000 deaths for China by August 1. China’s effectiveness has reduced this to 28,000 or only 17% or 1/6 of the last prediction.
Total deaths per 100k are only 2.02 for China.
On May 8, there are taken to be 19,988 total deaths, so there are 8,281 to go. Those savable by 80% masking are 32% or a third of those.
The peak of total deaths is June 13 at 106 per day. Hospitalizations peak on June 6, at 3,587 beds.
India
Full vaccinations for India will be at 64%, masking is only at 37%, and mobility is up 16%.
On September 1, projections are for total deaths at 3,681,207, with reported at the much smaller 526,353, or only 14%. This is consistent with last month’s IHME predictions.
With 80% masking, 9,803 lives could be saved.
On May 8, there are 3,658,287 total deaths, so there are 22,920 to go. Those savable by 80% masking are 43%.
With a population of 1.380 million, the per capita total death rate is 267/100k.
Global
Globally, on September 1, 62% are fully vaccinated, masking is at 42%, and mobility will be up 6% over pre-pandemic.
On September 1, the total deaths are modeled at 17,393,081, while reported deaths will be 6,965,914, or only 40% of total deaths. That is to say, total deaths are two and a half times reported deaths. These numbers are consistent with last month’s IHME prediction. With an increase now to 80% masking, 15,656 lives can be saved.
On May 8, total deaths are modeled at 1,263,618, so there are 34,446 more to go by September 1. Those savable by 80% masking now are 45% of those to go.
With a world population of 7.90 billion, the Global ratio of total deaths will be 220 per 100k.
