Guesstimating the SC Edison Clean Energy for 2020
In this article we will try to estimate or bound the Clean energy contribution to SC Edison Power mix for 2020, considering that 42.0% of their power is listed as Unspecified Power. This is bought over the grid from unknown sources. We claim no expertise for these naive estimates. We also note that in this article and the past two, rooftop solar installations less than 1 MW are not reported to the State of California.
Here is the rest of their Power Mix.
Under Fossil Fuels we include Coal at 0.0% and Natural Gas at 15.2% to give 15.2%.
Under Clean power, which totals 42.6%, we have:
Solar 15.1%
Wind 9.4%
Nuclear 8.4%
Geothermal 5.5%
Large Hydro 3.3%
Eligible Hydro 0.8%
Biomass 0.1%
Other is 0.3%.
In order to estimate the SCE Power Mix Unknown Sources, we first use the California Energy Compilation in the previous article which shows that the total California Energy Mix of CA generated plus Imported is 60% Clean energy, and about 40% natural gas. We first apply these ratios to the 42.0% Unknown Sources, giving for the Unknown Sources an additional 24.0% Clean and 16.8% Natural Gas to the SCE Power Mix. This makes Clean 66.6% Clean and Fossil Fuels at 32.0% Natural Gas..
For our second estimate, we assume that the SCE Unknown Sources are all from the Southwest Imported component of the CA Power Mix, which is also about 60% Clean but 40% fossil fuel. That fossil fuel is divided into 44.6% Coal and 55.4% natural gas. Multiplying the 42.0% of SCE Unknown Sources by these numbers gives: 42.0% x 60% = 25.2% Clean to the SCE Power Mix; 42.0% x 40% x 44.6% = 7.5% Coal to the SCE Power Mix; and 42.0% x 40% x 55.4% = 9.3% Natural Gas to the SCE Power Mix.
The SW Imported Estimate of the total SCE Power Mix is then:
Clean 42.6% + 25.2% = 67.8%;
Fossil Fuel,
Coal 0.0% + 7.5% = 7.5%; and
Natural Gas 15.2% + 9.3% = 24.5%.
Other is still 0.2%.
The SouthWest Imported energy regions are Arizona, Baja California, Colorado, Mexico, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, and Utah.
As an add on, we note that in December 2021, 17% of California’s electricity generation was from utility scale solar. If smaller scale solar would have been included, solar would have been 25% of net generation. That means an increase of 8%/17% = 47% in generation. In December 2021, California had 15,500 megawatts of utility scale solar, and an additional 12,500 megawatts of small scale solar, or 81% more of installed power. The ratio of 47% generated to 81% installed small solar shows an efficiency of 58% of small scale solar compared to utility scale solar.
