The monthly IHME model for California was run on July 15 and reported on July 17. It projects Total Deaths for California of 127,751 on November 1, 2022. Subtracting 125,343 Total Deaths from today, July 20, gives 2,408 more to come by November 1. Reported Deaths on November 1 are modeled at 84,792, or 67.6% of the Total Deaths then. The Reported Deaths to come by November 1 are 1,785.
Should California advance to 80% masking, the number of new Total Deaths can be reduced to 1,156 by November 1, or about half of that currently projected. The reported deaths would be 858, or again half of that currently projected.
Masking in California is at only 18%, and is modeled to decline to 13% by November 1. Social distancing at -17% will decline to 0%. Double vaccinations at 70% are modeled to increase to 77%. Hospitalizations are past their peak, but infections will rise back by November 1. Estimated Infections are about 71,600 per day in California today, and will decline to about 40,000 per day at the start of September, and then rise back to about 105,000 per day on November 1. Currently there are 3,658 hospital beds needed for Covid patients, with 395 being in ICUs. There are 44 Covid deaths per day.
The NY Times has California doubly vaccinated at 73%, and at least one booster at 40%. For those over 65, 92% are fully vaccinated.
Below is a table from a NY Times map for California and Southern California Counties, of Fully Vaccinated for All and 65+, and then Boosted for All and for 65+.
| County | Fully Vax | 65+ | Boosted | 65+ |
| California | 73% | 92% | 40% | |
| San Diego | 77% | 95% | 39% | 71% |
| Imperial | 95 | 95 | 24 | 57 |
| Orange | 73 | 92 | 42 | 73 |
| Riverside | 60 | 86 | 29 | 61 |
| San Bernardino | 59 | 85 | 28 | 61 |
| Los Angeles | 73 | 87 | 40 | 70 |
| Ventura | 73 | 94 | 40 | 73 |
| Santa Barbara | 72 | 94 | 39 | 74 |
| Kern | 54 | 83 | 24 | 57 |
Kudos to Seniors for attaining such high fully vaccinated rates and booster rates.
