The monthly IHME run on July 15 was reported on July 18.
Total Deaths for the USA will total 1,332,288 in the model on November 1, 2020. With 1,297,997 modeled today July 20, there are 34,291 more Total Deaths to go.
Reported Deaths in the USA will be 1,046,845 on November 1, and subtracting 1,020,267 modeled today, gives 26,578 Reported Deaths to go. The ratio of new Reported to Total Deaths by then is using the above number 77.5%.
Masking is currently 11% in the US, and modeled as declining to 8% on November 1. Social distancing is currently -6% and modeled to increase to 1%. Doubly vaccinated is modeled to rise to 74% from 70% today. It is estimated that 82% of Americans have been infected by Covid at least once.
The NY Times has the US at 67% doubly vaccinated, with 32% getting at least one booster. For the US with ages 65+, 92% are fully vaccinated.
For the US and four largest states, fully vaccinated, and then at least one booster shot are given in the table below.
| State | Fully Vax | Boosted |
| US | 67% | 32% |
| CA | 73% | 40% |
| TX | 63% | 25% |
| FL | 68% | 28% |
| NY | 78% | 37% |
The model assumes that for those hospitalized for Covid, that Paxlovid will have an effectiveness for reducing deaths of 25-30%, and reducing admissions by 40-50%.
There are currently about 850,000 Covid infections a day. Total deaths are about 460 per day, and Reported deaths about 360 per day in the US.
In the highly unlikely case that the US would start up 80% masking, the new Total Deaths to November 1 would only be 17,120, or about half of those currently projected. The Reported Deaths would be 13,254, or again about half of those currently projected.
