My Political Opinions on Economics and the Midterm Elections
In contrast to my data articles, which I separate, I’m just going to pack my economic political opinions into this one.
Although I read, follow, and attend webinars on economics, I am not qualified in this. So what I write are opinions. Democrats are about to be destroyed in the midterms because of inflation. Yet in the latest webinar with Economist Paul Krugman at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, it was pointed out that monthly inflation is 0.4% per month, or at a rate 4.8% a year. Yet the actual year inflation quoted in the media for the maximum frightening effect is around 8.5%. That has already occurred and can’t be changed by either party. While a standard has been set at 2% a year, the economists complained that there is no reason for that and 4% to 5% a year is fine also.
The Republican congress has no new ideas other than a new infusion of Reagonomics of explicit tax cuts for the wealthy. The UK just tried this, it messed up the value of the pound, and the markets, and PM Liz Truss only lasted 44 days. We will be stuck with the new House for two years, and the new Senators for six long years. Unfortunately, Republicans also plan to cut Social Security and Medicare, and who knows what else. That is not even elaborating the fealty of the Rs to Lord Trump and his egomaniacal con that he won the election despite being 7 million votes short. And following that with the Insurrection. Not to mention plans for a national ban on abortions, and perhaps taking away other rights. And abandoning Ukraine and fighting climate change.
The price of oil has started to decline again in the US as more refineries have finished their summer repair work. Paul Krugman in The NY Times argues that oil is still low on a historical basis, and is not something that should favor one party over the other.
The Rs are fighting the mild educational debt reduction program, which will cost $400 billion stretched over 30 years. This despite their Trump tax cut for the wealthy of $2 billion over 10 years. Even in a four year public university, costing say $40,000 a year, the effect is a $2,500 per year federal aid, or 6.25%, or 1/16 th.
There are 3.7 million births in America per year, and about 860,000 abortions a year. Most of these are to unmarried women, who cannot afford the cost of raising a child. With a Federal Forced Birth law, this increase of 23% of children has to be met with federal funding of $310,000 to raise them to age 17, where they might go to college. Since many of these mothers are in poverty, or will be when raising a child, the state or federal government will have to provide this aid. I had once calculated that the cost of K-12 education on top of that was about $150,000, or 50% more, for a total of $460,000. For the 860,000 new children, the cost to the mothers is $267 billion over the next 17 years plus maternity care and time off for maternity leave. The total cost is $400 billion. But remember, this is just the program for one year of births. This commitment has to be remade every year forever. It is about a half of the military budget! And yet, Rs are complaining about the college aid program of $400 billion just once, to be distributed over 30 years. By the way, it contributes little to our economy without giving these children fully funded college educations where they are capable of it, adding another $160,000 or 50% to the costs for some, and less for two year colleges or technical schools. If the status quo remains of states banning abortions separately, they are gaining $460,000 for each woman who goes out of state for an abortion, even without considering college. These states can at least fund the travel and abortions, other than they probably all have laws that ban any aid to an abortion, as does the federal government.
