Election Opinions, Part II
As usual, I will try to back up my opinions on the midterm election with facts. Those who wish to continue living in their fact-free universe should not read any further.
The increases in crime are a key election subject of the Republican Party. However, Paul Krugman and others have pointed out that crime has increased in Red states as well as in Blue states, and in rural as well as urban regions. Without ever presenting comprehensive statistics, Republicans select very limited ones to make another false point. In the report “The Red State Murder Problem”, at thirdway.org, while the 2020 national average murder rate was 6.5 per 100,000, the worst states were: Mississippi (20.50); Louisiana (15.79); Kentucky (14.32); Alabama (14.2); and Missouri (14). All more than twice the national average. On average, murder rates are 40% higher in that 25 states that Trump won in 2020. California’s murder rate was 5.59 per hundred thousand. The worst crime county in California is Kern County, with Bakersfield. This is represented by Kevin McCarthy, the past and perhaps future Republican Speaker of the House.
Krugman has also pointed out that a major part of inflation was the increase in the cost of rents, which is now already behind us.
In good economic news, the US GDP grew in the third quarter at a yearly rate of 2.6%.
Other authors have pointed out that the Republicans have no proposals for inflation fighting legislation, only cuts in Social Security and Medicare, which will further harm retirees or those planning retirement. Since the election of President Barack Obama in 2009, Senate Republican leader McConnell’s approach has been to stonewall all Democratic legislation. Electing a Senate or House Republican majority will only block any and all Biden legislation to reduce inflation or to mitigate its affects on poor or retired Americans. It is exactly the opposite approach needed for those whose main issue is inflation. Since Republicans are the party backed and funded by the oil industry, which is gorging on inflated profits, they are also the last to act to reduce the price of gasoline or natural gas.
Another Republican falsehood is that asylum seeking border crossers who instantly turn themselves into authorities are somehow the best that drug smugglers can do. This after they cross a river with only a backpack, after monthlong treks from Venezuela. Actually, there are $325 billion in imports from Mexico a year, and 350 million legal border crossings a year from Mexico. Even if there are a million asylum seekers a year crossing with backpacks, there are 350 times as many crossing with trucks, cars, and busses. As far as truck, rail, and air imports of goods, there would be $325,000 of goods for each asylum seeker in which to hide a small package of fentanyl, say. Numbers destroy this false Republican argument.
As a physicist and an applied mathematician, I keep thinking about how to have 7 million imported voters or space lasers or other schemes to reverse 7 million votes in the 2020 election. In detail, each of the schemes becomes more and more physically impossible. Have the election deniers or conspiracy theorists ever examined any of their vague ideas in detail? We know that the courts have thrown out the 61 cases brought by Trump’s so-called lawyers. Lead enthusiast Ron DeSantis was only able to find 20 cases in the state of Florida, which in fact were released convicts who had served their sentences, and were okayed to be voters by election boards. It was really on DeSantis that they were okayed if they should not have been. Maybe sentence DeSantis to the long prison terms awaiting these innocent victims of state incompetence. We must also remember that the actual voters of Florida passed a bill to allow ex-cons to resume their voting rights, but the legislature and Governor DeSantis found every reason possible to complicate that. Their action would probably be declared unconstitutional by any fair court. Voting rights is the fundamental basis of our Democracy, and is to be protected at all costs. 345 Republican candidates in the midterm election are election deniers. They are either seriously incapable of logic, or just plain liars. Either of those should disqualify them as far as voters are concerned.
This brings us to the Pennsylvania Senate race between Democrat John Fetterman, who is Lieutenant Governor for the last three years, versus Dr. Oz, who is from New Jersey, another multimillionaire worth about 200 million dollars. Dr. Oz was on a health advisory committee for President Trump, but it is not clear what role he played in fighting Covid. John Fetterman was also Mayor of Braddock for 13 years. He also has a Master of Public Policy degree from Harvard University. John Fetterman had a stroke, something that is going to happen to about 25% of Americans. It is impossible to write off a quarter of Americans because of this. There are about 800,000 strokes a year. Most of stroke recovery occurs during the first three months, and he has apparently done well. Statistically, the odds are 2/3 that he would live another 20 years. Even if there are some speech and hearing difficulties, he has 16 years of governing experience compared to little for Dr. Oz. Senators also have vast staffs for guidance, party staff to write and examine legislation, congressional committees for hearings and studies, the Congressional Budget office, and studies from the vast executive branches and also private organizations, like the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine. In an equally divided Senate, after contributing and backing legislation, there is little option other than to vote with the party. There is no indication that Dr. Oz will have the experience to do anything other than follow the fossil fuel lobbyists which back and fund his party, as well as the big Pharma which has funded his tv career. While oil and natural gas production are considered large businesses in Pennsylvania, they have jumped to $9.4 billion a year. But out of a state GDP of $844 billion, they are only 1.1%, and only employ about 5,000 workers. So while Fetterman is now for fracking, which is most of the production, the fact that he wasn’t four years ago when they were polluting more should not be a big deal.
Dr. Oz made a serious error in their debate when he said that in the doctor’s office with a pregnant woman, the local authorities would be present to give advice. Actually, under anti-abortion laws of the states, the local authority would be a policeman with his gun drawn and hadcuffs out to immediately arrest the abortion doctor and have him sentenced to long terms in prison. It is possible that even giving abortion advice, writing a prescription for an abortion pill, or recommending contraceptives will be outlawed in some states by the uncompromising abortion opposition organizations. Dr. Oz said that he would not back a national anti-abortion law. Like five of the Republican SCOTUS justices have lied to the Senate in their hearings about leaving Roe v. Wade alone, this is probably just another lie, since his statement said he believes the state should be banning it.
In summary, none of the universally cited Republican issues are valid or will be alleviated by electing them.
