Let’s start with the very positive. The Pfizer bivalent Omicron vaccine is a success. Israeli analysis of its use before patients 65 and over got infected, versus those not so boosted, showed that it resulted in 81% less hospitalization. That is only 1/5 as many who took the bivalent booster were hospitalized as those who didn’t take it.
The deaths in China have reached 60,000, and that is close to the value predicted in the IHME model for that date. However, one source stated that those deaths may be near peaking, whereas the IHME model predicts that by April 1, deaths may exceed 300,000, and go up to 500,000 if no masking requirements are reimposed. A picture of travelers in China at a station showed everybody masked, however.
A Nature magazine briefing said that about 10% of those COVID infected would develop Long Covid, which are symptoms lasting more than 12 weeks after initial infection. For the world, they said that this is 65 million worldwide. The IHME model on January 18 show that we are at the peak of daily covid infection of about 21 million a day. That would imply that 2 million a day would eventually develop Long Covid for a while.
