- Emissions for the 1.5º C Limit Goal Now Cut in Half.
The international IPCC limit of emissions before we reach the 1.5º C or 2.7º F mean earth temperature increase since the pre-industrial age of 1850 was calculated at 500 billion metric tonnes of CO2, where a metric tonne is 10% larger than a US ton. Current emissions are 42 billion metric tonnes a year.
New Nature magazine articles point out that that limit was based on data up to three years ago, and we have to subtract three years of emissions from that, or about 126 billion tonnes, for today’s estimate. They also point out that since coal usage has declined, the presence of sun-shielding aerosols has also declined, and that is equivalent to allowing 100 billion tonnes of emissions. Putting the two together, the emissions left to 1.5º C is about 250 billion tonnes of CO2. At the current emissions rate, that would be reached in six years, or by 2029!
SC Edison Countdown to 2045 for California’s Goals
This is the new upgrade of SCE’s previous 2019 Pathway plan.
California’s goals are to reach Net Zero emisssions by 2045. This requires that:
90% of light and medium vehicles will be electric by 2045, and 50% of heavy vehicles. By 2035, there will be 100% of Zero Emission Vehicle sales.
95% of space and water heating will be electric by 2045.
85% of emissions will be gone by 2045.
There will also be a negative 15% of emissions from new technologies of hydrogen fuel storage, carbon capture and storage, and new and smaller nuclear plants. SCE points out that these are not developed yet, and can still create emissions.
Also not yet demonstrated are floating offshore wind turbines, and vehicle to grid energy. Also, batteries age with the number of discharges.
The following graph shows the new Countdown pathway for new grid transmission in Yellow, and the older Pathway in Blue.
In the past, only 2 GigaWatts (billion Watts) of transmission capacity has been created per year, but the Countdown requires 7 GW created per year up to 2035, and then 8 GW per year to 2045. This is a total increase of 165 GW of grid capacity. In the past, it has required 2 to 4 years, or 6 years in one case, just to get approval from the CPUC or California Public Utility Commission, the Forest Service, and local government. SCE has put out a solicitation for Distributed Resources Projects. The growth in transmission capacity is shown in the graph of new transmission line power. These will be 20,000 miles of high capacity lines often at 500 kiloVolts, 230 kV, or 70 kV.
The grid power Capacity of California in GW is shown in the table below. For solar, the power averaged over the days and the year is about 1/5 the Capacity, and for on-shore wind, about 1/3. Hydro is included in Other. CAISO is the California Independent System Operator that operates the shared electricity resources for about 80% of the state or 32 million people. It includes SCE, SDG&E, and PG&E.
The changes add 120 GW of clean energy and remove 14 GW of natural gas for a net 106 GW added. The discrepancy of 165 GW added transmission and 106 GW added generation may be out of state sources and the larger grid needed for fluctuating renewable energy balances.
The maximum power used in the CAISO is now is about 46 GW in summer heat waves. A nuclear reactor puts out 1.1 GW.
SCE also states that electricity demand will rise by 80%.
If these dreams came true, there is a considerable cost savings to households of 40% for all energy uses, assuming that current rates of sources stay fixed. This is largely due to the increased efficiency of electric vehicles and the lower costs of renewables.
The total cost will be $370 Billion, which among 40 million Californians, will be about $9,000 per capita, not counting the costs of the electric vehicles. For an average household of three that would be $27,000. With about $3,000 savings per year, that would be paid off in around 9 years. $50 Billion will be used for increased transmission improvements.
