IHME Projections to December Increase, But 67,000 Still Savable by Masking
The IHME Projections to December of US deaths have risen during August, from 295,000 on August 6 projections, to 317,000 on August 27, and increase of 22,000. But deaths savable by Dec. 1 by 95% masking are still at 67,000. An LA Times poll showed only about 40% of people wear masks correctly, and another 10% wear masks incorrectly, not covering the nose. In present projections, the IHME assumes that current 49% masking continues unaltered.
The United States currently has 5.912 million cases, and 181,704 deaths. That is a fatality rate of 3.07%, for what it is worth. It is said to be much lower if there was more testing. The number of projected deaths per day on December 1 is 2100, and this can be reduced to 920 deaths per day with complete masking.
For election interest, we point out that projected deaths by Nov. 1 is 259,000, and 229,000 with masking, 30,000 lower. The daily deaths on Nov. 3 are projected to be 1,616, but with 95% masking could be 580.
We present the most dramatic states whose projections highly exceed present deaths, or where many deaths could be saved by masking. The order is by projected deaths. We will then contrast some state predictions with the August 6 projections.
| State | Current Deaths | Projections | With Masks | Lives Saved |
| CA | 12,769 | 37,645 | 24,307 | 13,338 |
| TX | 12,523 | 27,194 | 27,503 | – 309 |
| FL | 10,957 | 24,532 | 21,776 | 2,756 |
| GA | 5,469 | 12,247 | 8,888 | 3,359 |
| LA | 4,904 | 7,993 | 6,264 | 1,729 |
| OH | 4,098 | 7,564 | 5,318 | 2,246 |
| NC | 2,652 | 6,426 | 4,037 | 2,389 |
| TN | 1,701 | 5,926 | 3,892 | 2,034 |
| MO | 1,492 | 5,231 | 2,856 | 2,375 |
| SC | 2,655 | 5,023 | 3,878 | 1,145 |
| WA | 1,905 | 4,410 | 2,621 | 1,789 |
| MS | 2,413 | 4,036 | 3,235 | 801 |
| NV | 1,287 | 3,549 | 2,811 | 738 |
| OK | 786 | 3,055 | 1,566 | 1,489 |
| AR | 756 | 2,906 | 1,272 | 1,134 |
| WI | 1,113 | 2,340 | 1,440 | 900 |
The most lives saved with masking is in California with 13,338, which is 20% of the 67,000. Yet, California already has a statewide masking requirement. California’s Dec. 1 death total projection is about triple its current deaths.
The next state is Georgia with enforced openings and 3,359 savable by masking. The 6 states after California with over 2,000 lives saved add up to 15,159 lives saved by masking, or 23%.
States which have increased projections by 5,000 since August 6 are California and Florida.
States which have dropped projected deaths significantly are North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado, Alabama, Oregon, and Wisconsin.
While everybody thinks that their hospitalization for the Coronavirus will be covered by the government, a small survey showed that only 60% have been covered, and the others are getting enormous hospital bills.
