The UK IHME Projections to April 1
With the discovery of the Covid-19 mutation in London and Southeast England, we study the IHME projections to see if they show up yet, or to lay a basis for tracking their further spread. The as-yet-unnamed mutation is said to increase transmissability by 70%. This is temporarily stopping UK contact with the continent and raising questions for the US response. Like all of these questions, communication of present research and worldwide research is called for, with worldwide disclosure.
For foreigners like me, the UK has a population of 66.6 million, and is composed of four countries, of which England is the largest with 56 million. For comparison, the UK population is 20% or 1/5 of the US population.
As of December 14, there were 81,000 Covid-19 deaths. The IHME current projection is for April 1 is 117,000 deaths, which is 36,000 more or 44%. The current projection includes the present vaccine distribution. The UK has 60% mask use, and if they move to 95% masking, 9,000 lives can be saved. (2,300 lives will be saved by the standard vaccine distribution by then. If they double the vaccine rollout by a rapid rollout, that increases to 5,800 lives saved.). The schedule has 22 million or a third of the UK being vaccinated by April 1. 83% are willing to get the vaccine.
Daily Covid-19 deaths are 430, and will peak about January 11 at 530 a day. The Covid-19 is now the leading daily cause of deaths. 95% masking will reduce this to 409 a day, saving 121 lives a day or 23%, a quarter. By comparison with the US, the US deaths per day peak on January 6 at 3,780, which is a factor of 7.1 times that of the UK, while the US population is only 5 times as large as the UK.
Daily cases are about 14,000 a day, but a graph shows that only 13% are detected. The IHME graphs show that the estimated current infections are 86,837, giving 16% detected, or a 6.2 to 1 ratio of infections to confirmed ones. For comparison, in the IHME modeling, the US has 666,729 daily infections, or 7.7 times that of the UK, despite having 5 times the population.
The IHME model says that R is less than 1 in all four countries of the UK.
On December 14, the percent infected are 17.5-20% in England and Wales, and 15-17.5% in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Deaths per million are 6-7 in England, 7-8 in Wales and Northern Ireland, and 4-5 in Scotland.
After vaccines and infections, the susceptible population on April 1 will be 35 million, or 53%.
The percent infected on April 1 will be greater than 25% in England and Wales, and and 20-25% in Scotland and North Ireland.
Hospital beds needed for Covid-19 patients peak about January 12, after the holiday season, at 20,081, with 30,405 available. However, ICU beds needed peak then at 2,775, with only 1,352 available. Those needed are 14% or 1/7 of hospitalizations. Ventilators needed then are 1,416, or 7.1% of hospitalizations, and half of ICUs.
