IHME California December 23 Projects Triple Deaths by April 1
The IHME is projecting 71,000 Covid-19 deaths in California by April 1. This is triple the current number in their model of 23,676 now. Deaths per day will peak around February 8 at 650 a day, which is an increase to 2.5 times the current rate in the model of 265 per day. Increasing masking from our current 79% to 95% could save almost 11,000 lives, and save 23% of those to be accrued by then. The deaths per day at the peak can be reduced 27% by increased masking.
Tomorrow, the US deaths will reach 330,000, or 1/1,000 of the US population of 330 million.
All projections in the model include the latest projections of vaccinations, which save 10,200 lives by April 1 in the current projection.
Current daily infections are modeled at 93,697 per day, with 38,800 confirmed per day in the last week. That gives a 2.4 ratio, with reciprocal of 42% being confirmed by testing. It agrees with a graph which shows 37% are being detected. The week before, there were 29,700 confirmed a day.
The peak of daily infections occurs on January 27, at 135,710 a day, which can be reduced to 95,326 a day with 95% masking, saving 40,384 lives a day or 30%. The peak of daily infections is 45% greater than those today cited above.
While there are 26,654 hospital beds available for Covid-19 patients on a normal basis before the disease, at the peak of need on February 10, 52,429 will be needed for Covid-19 patients, which is 25,775 more, or about double those available.
ICU beds and care available above normal are currently 1,994 but currently 5,280 are needed, or 2.6 times as many. At the peak need on February 8, 12,815 ICU beds will be needed which is 6.4 times those normally available. The extra need is 10,821 more. Don’t be one of those. Follow all of the rules.
Currently, 2.549 ventilators are in use in California for Covid-19 patients in the model. At the peak on February 8, 6,119 will be in use, or 2.4 times the current number.
Covid-19 is now the weekly number one cause of death in California, at 1,538 a week, compared to 1,004 weekly from heart disease, so Covid-19 is 53% greater.
As of December 20, the model has 13% of Californians had been infected. Confirmed California cases have now passed 2 million, which is 5%.
Polls in California show that 56% will accept the vaccine, 24% are unsure, which leaves 20% not accepting it. Dr. Fauci now says that it may take 70-85% vaccinated or infected to achieve herd immunity. California may reach this.
The projections are 11 million Californians out of our 40 million population will be vaccinated by April 1, which is 28%. 39% will still be susceptible by then.
From a map of the states, 30-35% of Californian adults will be infected by April 1, so vaccinated plus infected will be 58-63%. This is consistent with the 39% susceptible number.lm,
While the US President and administration change on January 20 is more relevant on a national basis, we report on the IHME deaths in California by that date as well. On that date, California deaths will be 35,214, which is 49% greater than current deaths at 23,676, in less than a month, or 26 days. Conversion to 95% masking will save 516 of those lives of the 11,538 to be lost by then, or 4.5%.
Deaths per day on January 20 will be up by a factor of 2.15 to 568 per day, over current daily deaths of 264. That is an increase of 304 deaths per day. Conversion to 95% masking will reduce that to 486 per day, saving 82 lives per day or 14%.
