The UK IHME Projections to April 1 hardly changed for the December 20 model output.
With the discovery of the Covid-19 mutation in London and Southeast England, we study the IHME projections to see if they show up yet, or to lay a basis for tracking their further spread. The as-yet-unnamed mutation is said to increase transmissability by 70%. This has been found in 3 US states and in about 20 countries. Like all of these questions, communication of present research and worldwide research is called for, with worldwide disclosure.
The UK has decided to delay second doses of Oxford Astra-Zeneca to 3 to 12 weeks, because the first dose is 80% effective itself, and they want to cover as many as quickly as possible. I agree. The two US vaccine’s first doses are 90% effective. Don’t quote me on this, I only heard it once on TV and have not read it yet. When it is included in the IHME projections it may bring them up to the case of rapid distribution, saving more lives.
The UK has a population of 66.6 million, and is composed of four countries, of which England is the largest with 56 million. For comparison, the UK population is 20% or 1/5 of the US population.
As of December 20, there were 83,166 Covid-19 deaths in the model, and today projected at 89,898. The IHME current projection is for April 1 is 116,488 deaths, which is 26,590 more than today or 30%. The current projection includes the present vaccine distribution. The UK has 60% mask use, and if they had moved to 95% masking, 8,382 lives could have been saved or 32% of those left to occur. 2,300 lives will be saved by the standard vaccine distribution by April 1. If they double the vaccine rollout by a rapid rollout, that increases to 5,800 lives saved. The schedule has 22 million or a third of the UK being vaccinated by April 1, or 40% of adults. 83% are willing to get the vaccine, which is really 56% who are sure, and 27% who are unsure, leaving 17% not willing.
Daily Covid-19 deaths are now 565 in the model, and will peak about January 11 at 640 a day. The Covid-19 is now the leading daily cause of deaths. 95% masking would have reduced this to 599 a day, saving 41 lives a day or 6.4%.
Daily confirmed cases on December 20 are about 17,900 a day, but a graph shows that only 13% are detected. The current estimated daily cases in IHME are 86,074, giving 21% detected, or a ratio of 4.8.
On December 20, the percent infected are 20% in the UK, and are greater than or equal to 20% in England and Wales, and 17.5-20% in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Daily deaths per million are 7-8 in England, >8 in Wales , and 4-5 in Northern Ireland and Scotland.
The percent who have been infected on April 1 will be greater than 25% in England, and 20-25% in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland.
After vaccines and infections, the susceptible population on April 1 will be 42 million, or 64%, with 40% of adults vaccinated. However, with a rapid vaccine rollout to high risk individuals, threat can be reduced to 20 million susceptible.
Hospital beds needed for Covid-19 patients peak about January 10, after the holiday season, at 23,085, with 30,405 available. However, ICU beds needed peak then at 2,974, with only 1,352 available. Those needed are 13% or 1/8 of hospitalizations. Ventilators needed then are 1,448, or 6.3% of hospitalizations, and half of ICUs.
