US and California Vaccine Distribution Estimates
I was going to write a reasoned article about vaccine distribution, based on Monday’s data in the Washington Post, since it seemed that the situation had finally settled down. That was all thrown awry today, when Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar overthrew the CDC and Dr. Fauci decision on keeping regulated second doses back, and instead going along with the Biden decision to release all doses as soon as possible. That copied the UK decision as well.
The choice should never have been just vaccinate all, or hold second doses in reserve. All manufacturing and sales businesses today are regulated by the mathematics of supply chains, putting parts together as needed, and stocking shelves as needed. The Pfizer and Moderna production schedules, supplemented by possible upgrades that Biden could order, would easily determine what was possible. We don’t know if that was behind either Biden’s or Azar’s plans. Biden promised 100 million shots in the first 100 days, while it takes two doses for a complete vaccination. Azar says that Moderna will have 100 million doses by the end of March, and Pfizer will have 200 million by the end of July.
The new schedule is just to vaccinate everyone over 65 and those with comorbidites. The disorganized vaccinations of everyone over 65 in Florida left people outside overnight, and skipped nursing homes and staff, hospital staff, health care workers, and prisoners. Many seniors cannot sit outside overnight with no facilities. Yet Azar proposed such a vast population to start, and would allocate more vaccines to such disorganized states such as Republican Florida and Texas, as opposed to California and New York with great organization, which would save the most lives.
Here are the data. The US has 21 million over 75, and 32 million age 65-74, giving a total of 53 million over 65, which could almost be covered with two doses from Moderna’s 100 million doses by the end of March. That is about 70 days after Biden is sworn in. Also, 56% of adults have comorbidities. By the 2010 census, that would be 132 million. Some of these will be covered in the over 65 population already. Azar says that they will be doing 1 million vaccinations a day in a week. The American Hospital Association wants 1.8 million vaccinations a day, while they are given seven days a week. This would accomplish herd immunity by the middle of the year. Moderna’s 100 million in 70 days will be 1.43 million a day. Moderna does not need dry ice refrigeration, and can be spread out more.
From the Washington Post, 2.7% of Americans or 9 million have received one dose. In California, 2.0% have received one dose, in Texas, 2.9%, in Florida 2.9%, and in New York, 3.1%. California would be punished if future distribution is proportional to present distribution.
In California, 783 thousand or 2.0% of the state have received one dose, while 4.23 million are prioritized or 6.8% of the state population. California’s population is 39.5 million. 2.4 million are health care workers. So far, California has been allocated 2.9 million doses, or 64% of those prioritized.
The W.H.O. Does not foresee worldwide immunity being achieved in 2021.
We have to see what tomorrow will bring.
