The US IHME Model Projects Large Drops in Covid-19 Cases by April
Update January 19. Today, tragically, the number of US Covid-19 deaths reached 400,000. The IHME model for the US projects: 49,000 more by Feb. 1; 120,000 more by March 1; 156,000 more by April 1; and 167,000 more by May 1. While there are now almost 25 million detected cases (24.2), the IHME model has 22% of Americans have been infected, which is 73 million people, three times as many.
Just yesterday, it was disclosed that despite HHS Secretary Azar’s new policy to release the backup second shots, that there actually were not second shots hiding in reserve. I don’t know how this will figure in the IHME projections, where 37,800 lives would be save by May 1 by vaccinations. We expect transparency after January 20th. So far, 31 million dosages have been delivered, and 12 million have been given. By May 1, 141 million are expected by IHME to be vaccinated with double shots, which exceeds Biden’s 100 million shots in the first 100 days, which extends to May 1. This reminds me of “bistromathics” in Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy, being the math used in a bistro. Also, the CDC says that the B.1.1.7 mutated English strain will take over and be 30% to 50% more infectious by the end of March. The IHME does not note that this is yet included. There is also a study by Stanford that strict lockdowns are no better than lesser restrictions, which is being highly touted on Fox News, but is also at odds with other studies. Also Fox is incorrectly saying that after being vaccinated, you don’t need to wear a mask. Much more science remains to be done. IHME builds in 25% following that premature advice in their model.
Current polling shows that 52.5% of Americans would accept vaccinations, and 24.1% are unsure. As they prove successful, the IHME takes this as the sum 77%, leaving 23% currently not taking them. This is the middle of the 70%-85% range of vaccinations considered necessary for herd immunity. By state, those amenable to vaccination range from 66% in Mississippi to 85% in Utah.
As of January 11, 22% of Americans are considered as having already been infected.
In IHME, there are currently 391,610 Covid-19 deaths, with 566,720 expected on May 1, for a gain of 175,110, or 45%. With Universal Masking of 95%, 31,439 or 18% of those lives can be saved. The smallness of the number is because the US is already at 76% masking. President Biden plans to order masking for 100 days, or until May 1, May Day.
Daily deaths are modeled as averaging 3,390 per day. In the model, they will peak at 3,676 a day on February 1st. By Universal Masking, this can be reduced to 3,527 a day, saving 149 lives a day or 4.1%.
Daily infections are modeled today at 672,160 a day, while those confirmed by testing are about 210,000 a day, giving a ratio of 3.2, or only 31% or a third are being confirmed. On a graph, they show that 38% of infections per day are being confirmed. The confirmed percentages in the four most populous states are: California, 38%; Texas, 26%; Florida, 43%; and New York, 20%.
Hospital beds needed for Covid-19 patients will peak on January 30 at 170,978. We are approaching that being currently at 153,558. After the peak they will decline rapidly to being only 11,787 on May 1. While the next few weeks will continue to be terrible, there is relief coming. We have to keep observing the rules.
ICU beds needed will peak on January 29, at 40,196, slightly above the current number of 36,542, or 24% of Covid-19 beds needed. On May 1, this will be reduced to a reasonable 2,616.
Patients on ventilators are currently at 20,126, almost at the projected January 29 peak of 22,090. They are at 13% of beds for Covid-19 patients. On May 1, this will be reduced to 1,417.
