Projections for Excess and Detected Covid-19 Deaths with the Delta Variant in the IHME Model.
With the now over 90% dominance of the Delta Variant in all States, we look at the projections in the IHME model to Nov. 1. The projections are the Current Projection, the 95% Masking Projection, and the Worst case Projection with no effective protocols. The model also looks at the projections from the Covid verified deaths, and the Excess deaths due to Covid. We save ourselves typing by just posting the graphs with the deaths today, and then with projections to Nov. 1 on it.
We then give state-by-state graphs.
One table of interest is the vaccine efficacies table that the IHME uses against disease, and against infections.
| Vacccine | Efficacy Disease | Efficacy Infection |
| Pfizer | 81% | 77% |
| Moderna | 83% | 79$ |
| Janssen (J&J) | 64% | 56% |
Only 25% of US infections are detected by testing.
The current US Excess and Detected Covid Deaths. The ratio of Excess Deaths 941,000 to Detected Deaths of 609,000 is 1.55, or 55% greater.
The Reported and Excess Deaths projections for November 1 below. Going to 95% masking would save 48,649 lives in the Reported Deaths projection. Out of the 74,522 to be lost in the Reported projection, the savable is 65%. In the Excess Deaths projection it would save 79,603 lives nationally. In Excess Deaths there will be 121,874 more lives lost by November 1. So the savable lives by masking are 65% or almost 2/3 of those to be lost.
Projection that 63% of adults will be effectively vaccinated by November 1, including those with just one dose and the efficacy of the vaccines.
Estimated Infections are about 400,000 a day, which is 5 times the Reported average daily infections over the past week of 80,000 a day.
Projected use of Hospital Resources, beds and ICUs, will climb back to two-thirds of the January peak.
Projected Daily Excess Deaths Due to Covid-19. The Current Projection is in the middle in brown.
State-by-state estimate of those vaccinated or willing to receive them. For the four largest states, California is over 80%, Texas over 70%, Florida over 75%, and New York over 75%. Four states fall below 60%.
The Southern states with lower vaccination rates have 0.4% to 0.6% higher fatality rates. With the Delta Variant, ICUs are already getting overfilled.
Mean effective R is the number of infections caused by an infected person in a given time or area. It is greater in states with fewer vaccinations.
Percent infected by state. States with fewer protocols and fewer vaccinations have been more infected, in general.
