IHME Covid Projections for the US from February 4th, and comparison of unvaccinated versus vaccinated and also boosted hospitalizations and Covid deaths.
We usually include the US Total Deaths, which by June 1 will be 1,083,921, while the Feb. 5 estimate is 1,037,733, leaving 46,188 to go. Reported deaths on June 1 are estimated to be 934,575, or 149,346 less, or 13.8% less than Total Deaths.
Daily Deaths are modeled to have peaked on January 27 at 2,450 per day. On February 5, they are modeled at 2,232 per day, or 91% of the peak rate. On February 18 the model has 1,158 deaths per day, or 47%. March 1 the rate will be reduced to 624 per day, or 25%. On March 15, deaths per day will be 335, or 14% of the peak.
Vaccinations of one dose or more in the US are modeled to hold steady at 75%. Full vaccinations are currently 67% and will rise to 71% by June 1.
Current mask use is 50%. Social Mobility is now only reduced 14% from before the pandemic.
Hospitalization beds modeling for the US peaked on January 17th at 176,709, while ICU beds peaked a day later at 35,751 or 20% of the total. Today, February 6, beds are 112,715 or 64% of the peak, and ICUs are 25,949 or 23% of total beds. On March 1, beds will be 39,220 or 35% of the peak, and ICUs are 9,367 or 24% of beds. On April 1, beds will be 14,028 or 8% of the peak, and ICUs will be 3,325 or 24% of beds.
Estimated Infections for the US are modeled to have peaked on January 3rd at 4.70 million per day. On February 5th, they were 1.16 million per day, or 25% of the peak. With 80% masking this could have been reduced by 140,000 a day, or 12%. On March 1, infections will be 424,000 per day, or 9.0% of the peak. 80% masking would reduce that by 173,000 per day, or 41%. On April 1, infections will be 163,000 per day or 3.5% of the peak. 80% masking would reduce that by 80,000 a day or 49%.
Bill Maher showed the following data from the CDC:
78% of people hospitalized for Covid were overweight or obese. However, my Google Nest tells me that 36.5% of American adults are obese, and 32.5% are overweight, which total 69%. His data also said that since June 2021, nearly 99% of the covid deaths were among the unvaccinated. Also, [75%] of people who have died of the virus in the US have been 65 or older. Only 17% or 1/6 of the US population is 65 or older.
What the CDC website actually says today about Covid-19 Deaths in November, is that unvaccinated adults 18 and over are 15 times more likely to die than fully vaccinated adults, and 68 times more likely to die than those who have a booster shot as well.
The CDC also says that hospitalizations of adults 18 and over for Covid in December are 16 times higher among the unvaccinated. They are 17 times higher for ages 65+, 17 times higher for ages 50-64, 12 times higher for ages 18-49, and 8 times higher for ages 12-17.
For hospitalizations of the unvaccinated compared to those with booster shots, they are 51 times higher for ages 65+, and 45 times higher for those 50-64. So boosters triple your protection from hospitalization for seniors, and more than quadruple your protection from dying for all adults. And, did we mention, boosters are free (as are the vaccinations).
Another statement I heard from the CDC was that the US underestimated Covid deaths by 32% up to September 2021. IHME only has the difference as 14% through June 1, 2022.
Another data is that for October and November, the weekly mortality rate was: for the boosted 0.1/100,000; for the fully vaccinated 0.6/100,000; and for the unvaccinated 7.8/100,000.
Boosters were most effective for those 65 and older, where weekly deaths were 0.5/100,000, compared to the unvaccinated, where weekly deaths were 33.4/100,000.
Hospitalizations for the unvaccinated 65 and older were 52 times that for the fully vaccinated and boosted.
Unvaccinated adults have 5 times the risk of infection than those fully vaccinated and boosted.
The CDC also said that a previous Covid infection during the Delta surge reduced your risk of reinfection by a factor of more than 50 over those who were not infected and who were also not vaccinated. While protection fades for a few months after infection, it then reaches a plateau that may last a year or more. However, taking this route is a risk to yourself and others that you infect, overburdens the hospital system causing suffering to others who need care, and stops the economy from recovering, causing needless suffering to many others. There is also the risk of becoming a Long Term sufferer.
Only 4 in 10 of the fully vaccinated are boosted in the US. Go to vaccines.gov if you need to find a place to get vaccinated or boosted, for free. I tried this, and it listed 50 sites within 6.7 miles of my zip code.
