IHME Projections of Covid Surge for China With Peaking Infections Mid-March
The new December 16 issue of IHME Covid projections for China has fully vaccinated at 87%, with 59% masking. Other sources say that China now has an inhaleable booster. For those over age 60, 69% have received boosters, but fewer of those over 80.
The IHME Policy Briefing for China states that there is less than 10% Covid infections in much of China, but is 50%-60% in Inner Mongolia. Only about 6% of Covid infections are detected. BA.1/BA.2 is 50-74% of infections in most of China, but is lower at 25%-49% in Inner Mongolia. BA.5 is 50-75% in Inner Mongolia, but 25%-49% in most of China. There is projected to be a growth of immunity to BA.1/BA.2 to 28%, and BA.5 to 25%. Currently 80% are susceptible because of the low effectiveness of vaccines and the long time since initial vaccinations. In Beijing, the dominant strain is BF.7, short for BA.5.2.1.7, which is an offspring of BA.5 and more infectious with many asymptomatic cases, but also not overwhelming other countries where it is present.
In addition to the IHME Current Projection where masking mandates get reimposed by province when certain bounds are exceeded, the IHME also does a run not shown in the graphs, where the mask mandate is not reimposed.
Infections per day are projected to peak on March 14 at about 2.91 million a day with global antivirals, at 2.88 million a day with the Current Projection, and down to 2.13 million a day with an increase to 80% masking, saving 26% of the current projection infections. With no masking mandate, daily infections are modeled at 4.6 million a day by March 1. Today, infections are at 673,000 per day, which could be reduced to 615,000 a day or by 9% with 80% masking.
Hospitalizations will continue to rise though throughout the projections on April 1 where they will be at 96,744, with ICUs at 9,352 or 10%. However, in the no masking mandate, hospitalizations will rise to about 150,000.
The IHME recommends China getting more effective vaccines from abroad, and also get Paxlovid. China is already working on getting more seniors vaccinated. They also need booster shots. They are testing about a dozen vaccines.
Daily deaths in the model are still growing on April 1 where they are:
No masking mandate, 9,000 per day;
Current Projection, 5,362 per day;
Reported, 5,058 per day;
With 80% masking, 3,881 per day saving 28% over current projection; or
With global antivirals, 4,361 per day saving 19% over current Projection.
Total Deaths by April 1 are modeled at:
No masking mandate, 500,000;
Current Projection, 322,660;
Reported, 293,127 or 91%;
With antivirals, 275,308 or 85% saving 15% of the current projection; or
With 80% masking, 249,971 or 77% saving 23% of the current projection.
In the Current Projection, the peak is around April 1, but will continue for many months. There could be more than 1 million deaths during 2023.
