Talk by UCI Political Science Prof. Michael Tesler on the 2016 Election
UCI Political Science Prof. Michael Tesler gave a UCI Forum talk on Feb. 24, 2016 entitled “Shattered: Breaking Down the 2016 Election”. I am not going to try to talk about all of the interesting graphs he showed about Trump or Clinton supporters versus many issues. That is the material for an upcoming book that he is writing with John Sides and Lynn Vavreek.
He cited a book: “The Party Decides” which showed that before 2000, the parties picked the candidates based on endorsements before the Iowa primary. The candidates were chosen at the convention. I’m actually watching Rachael Maddow showing the same thing in older conventions like 1968.
He said that most Republicans are not ideologues to cut the government. Social security is still important to them.
The concept that “Mass Politics is Group-centric” Is becoming more potent.
Prof. Tesler Is publishing his book “Most-Racial: The Growing Racialization of Mass Politics in the Obama Era”, with the University of Chicago Press.
The concept of the “Nature of the Times” matters a lot.
President Obama has helped support Hillary Clinton, which helps with Democrats.
There is a “Daughter Effect” which positively influences men who have daughters toward women’s issues.
There is a “Party Partisan Activation” that brings people back into supporting their party’s candidate after the convention.
There was a long question and answer section.
Q. Someone wanted to point out that Clinton had been winning in red state primaries. Can she win in blue states?
The talk title may also be the book title “Shattered”, because the glass ceiling of a woman being President would be shattered, the influence of unlimited campaign contributions would shatter the importance of public support, and the Republican Party may be shattered.
He said that the low turnout for Democrats may not carry over to the general election. Trump will lead to people turning out on both sides.
A book is coming out in April called “Democracy for Realists” by Achen and Bartels, and subtitled “Why Elections do Not Produce Representative Government”. Among other things, politicians get blamed for bad things, even if they have no control over them.
Trump is drawing on Americans who are struggling.
The Supreme Court vacancy could motivate Democrats and conservatives to turn out.
Running mates as Vice President candidates will not have a strong effect outside of their home states.
Platforms do not matter much to voters. When Social Security was an issue, people thought about it based on how they thought about the candidates.
The issue of immigration and the wall ma get people to change about issues.
Q. Could there be a third party?
A. There could be one for constitutional conservatives, say backing Ted Cruz types. To get on the ballot in all states it would have to use the Constitution party or the Libertarian party.
Q. Foreign policy?
A. Obama is still popular, near 50%, but on foreign policy, he only has 34% approval. This could hurt Hillary Clinton, since she is associated with it. On the other hand, the Republicans have Iraq to account for.
Q. What about the polls that show that Sanders is better than Clinton against Trump?
A. Polling is not good until after the conventions. The Republicans have not attacked Sanders yet because they would prefer for him to be the opponent. Sanders is the only candidate with a positive opinion rating.
