California Dreamin’ of Defeating Orange County Republicans
It’s a sunny day finally, and the end of our long May Gray and June Gloom, and I started “California dreamin’” of defeating local and coastal Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections. The idea is simple. Despite essentially 60%-40% Republican victories in the Presidential and midterm elections, only about half as many people vote in the midterm elections. Hence, if angry and unrepresented Democrats who voted in the 2016 Presidential election decided to vote in the 2018 midterms, they could overwhelm the Republicans who normally vote in the midterms.
The margin could even be enhanced by two factors. First, since everybody knew that Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump in California, there weren’t that many incentives for many Democrats to vote in California in 2016. Even then, in Mimi Walter’s 45th district, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by 5%. In 2018, some real Republicans might even want to stay home, now that they know the full extent of the lack of “business and deal making” abilities of Donald Trump, as well as the daily scandals.
Let’s test these ideas out by comparing the 2016 Democratic votes for a Democratic challenger, to the 2014 off year votes for the Republican representative. The data is from ballotpedia.
45th Congressional District, Republican Mimi Walters
2014 Election
Mimi Walters: 65.1% 106,083
Drew Leavens: 34.9% 56,819
Total: 162,902
2016 Election
Mimi Walters: 58.6% 182,618
Ron Varasten: 41.4% 129,231
Total: 311,849
2018 California Dream Election
Mimi Walters: 45.0% 106,083
Democrat: 54.9% 129,231
Total: 235,314
We have, again, simply put in Walter’s 2014 midterm number with the Democrat’s 2016 number. Of course, we need a strong and likeable Democratic candidate, who can devote full time to campaigning and fund raising. It is not clear that the California or National Democratic Party will risk funds on such a lopsided district. Also, the Democratic candidate will not be determined until the June 8, 2018 primary. Then there is are the complications of cross party and independent voting. Funds raised before that may well be spent on the primary, although they can advertise the Democratic candidate as well. Then there are just five months of fund raising and campaigning to the Nov. 6, 2018 midterm election. The Republicans will have had two years to raise funds and campaign for Rep. Walters, including all of the connections that come with being the Representative. So, as I started, “California dreamin’ on such a winter’s day” (The Mama’s and Papa’s).
Let’s do the same math faster for California’s 48th District, represented by Dana Rohrabacher.
California’s 48th District: Republican Dana Rohrabacher
2014:
Rohrabacher: 64.1% 112,082
Sue Savary: 35.9% 62,714
Total: 174,795
2016:
Rohrabacher: 58.3% 178,701
Sue Savary: 41.7% 127,715
2018 Dream Election
Rohrabacher: 46.7% 112,082
Democrat: 53.3% 127,715
Yea, Democrat! Democratic primary candidates have to refrain from destroying their primary opponents, as happened in the Democratic Presidential primary.
Since Republicans are voting to allow internet access companies to sell their data, we will have to deal with unimaginable personal lobbying in future elections. There also may be federal voting restrictions, including driver’s licenses, students not being allowed to vote at their colleges, safeguards against the three to five million illegal votes against Trump, fewer voting booths, hours, mail-in time periods, early required registration, etc. We must fight such restrictions with States Rights.
