California Dreamin’ of Defeating Orange County Republicans

California Dreamin’ of Defeating Orange County Republicans

It’s a sunny day finally, and the end of our long May Gray and June Gloom, and I started “California dreamin’” of defeating local and coastal Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections.  The idea is simple.  Despite essentially 60%-40% Republican victories in the Presidential and midterm elections, only about half as many people vote in the midterm elections.  Hence, if angry and unrepresented Democrats who voted in the 2016 Presidential election decided to vote in the 2018 midterms, they could overwhelm the Republicans who normally vote in the midterms.

The margin could even be enhanced by two factors.  First, since everybody knew that Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump in California, there weren’t that many incentives for many Democrats to vote in California in 2016.  Even then, in Mimi Walter’s 45th district, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by 5%.  In 2018, some real Republicans might even want to stay home, now that they know the full extent of the lack of “business and deal making” abilities of Donald Trump, as well as the daily scandals.

Let’s test these ideas out by comparing the 2016 Democratic votes for a Democratic challenger, to the 2014 off year votes for the Republican representative.  The data is from ballotpedia.

45th Congressional District, Republican Mimi Walters

2014 Election

Mimi Walters: 65.1%   106,083

Drew Leavens: 34.9%     56,819

Total:                               162,902

2016 Election

Mimi Walters: 58.6%    182,618

Ron Varasten:  41.4%    129,231

Total:                                311,849

2018 California Dream Election

Mimi Walters: 45.0%     106,083

Democrat:        54.9%     129,231

Total:                                 235,314

We have, again, simply put in Walter’s 2014 midterm number with the Democrat’s 2016 number.  Of course, we need a strong and likeable Democratic candidate, who can devote full time to campaigning and fund raising.  It is not clear that the California or National Democratic Party will risk funds on such a lopsided district.  Also, the Democratic candidate will not be determined until the June 8, 2018 primary.  Then there is are the complications of cross party and independent voting.  Funds raised before that may well be spent on the primary, although they can advertise the Democratic candidate as well.  Then there are just five months of fund raising and campaigning to the Nov. 6, 2018 midterm election.  The Republicans will have had two years to raise funds and campaign for Rep. Walters, including all of the connections that come with being the Representative.  So, as I started, “California dreamin’ on such a winter’s day” (The Mama’s and Papa’s).

Let’s do the same math faster for California’s 48th District, represented by Dana Rohrabacher.

California’s 48th District:  Republican Dana Rohrabacher

2014:

Rohrabacher:  64.1%  112,082

Sue Savary:     35.9%     62,714

Total:                              174,795

2016:

Rohrabacher:  58.3%  178,701

Sue Savary:      41.7%  127,715

2018 Dream Election

Rohrabacher:  46.7%  112,082

Democrat:       53.3%   127,715

Yea, Democrat!  Democratic primary candidates have to refrain from destroying their primary opponents, as happened in the Democratic Presidential primary.

Since Republicans are voting to allow internet access companies to sell their data, we will have to deal with unimaginable personal lobbying in future elections.  There also may be federal voting restrictions, including driver’s licenses, students not being allowed to vote at their colleges, safeguards against the three to five million illegal votes against Trump, fewer voting booths, hours, mail-in time periods, early required registration, etc.  We must fight such restrictions with States Rights.

 

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
This entry was posted in 2018 Midterm Election, Dana Rohrabacher CA 48th, Mimi Walters CA 45th, Politics. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply