Deaths From the Trumpcare Plan Over the Next Decade

Deaths from the Trumpcare (BCRA) Plan Over the Next Decade


While the previous article argued for consideration of the added expenses and injuries caused by pricing out pre-seniors from healthcare in the Trumpcare plan (Better Care Reconciliation Act), has projected the deaths over the next decade from the 22 million that will be dropped or priced out over the next decade.   While very poignant, it leaves out the larger number of expensive operations and treatments, and the pain and suffering resulting from depriving people of preventative health care.


Using the ratio of one death per year per 830 people not covered by health care, and accounting for the increasing loss of health care as Medicaid declines over the next decade, they have estimated that there will be 208,500 unnecessary deaths occurring through 2026.  The source is, June 28, 2017, by Ann Crawford-Roberts, Nichole Roxas, and Ichiro Kawachi.  In 2026 itself, when the full 22 million are eliminated or priced out, the number of extra deaths will be 26,500.


This study was done in Massachusetts under Romneycare.  While I do not know how the number of physicians in a state per capita would affect the 1/ 830 per year deaths, Massachusetts has the highest number of active physicians per 100,000 in the US at 432.4 in 2014.  The US average is 265.5.  I will add that information to the table of death rates for 2026 below.  


We will just list for the largest population states the number of their residents dropped by 2026, and the number of extra deaths that occur in 2026, again, just dividing by 830.  Our list only cites those states having over 1,000 deaths in 2026.  The fourth column is the number of physicians in the state per 100,000 people.

State:     Number Dropped:     No. of extra Deaths:   No. of Physicians per 100,000 

California:             2,483,000         2,992           262.5

Florida:                  2,086,500         2,514           257.2

Georgia:                   963,200          1,160           220.9

New York:             1,139,000          1,372           353.8

North Carolina:    1,348,300          1,624           244.0

Texas:                    2,430,600           2,928          213.3

US:                 22,000,000       26,500         265.5


The total deaths for the six largest states  by deaths is 12,590, or about half of the US total of 26,500.  Florida, Georgia, and Texas have not expanded Medicaid, and North Carolina is considering it.  As of May 19, 31 states and D.C. have expanded Medicaid.  In 2015, Florida had a population of 20.27 million, which was 52% of California’s 39.14 million, yet their extra deaths in 2026 are 84% of California’s.

While one out of 830 a year sounds small, consider a person dropped out or priced out over the next decade.  That means only a 1 in 83 chance of an unnecessary death.  Do I have your attention now?

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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