Election Probabilities for the US, California, and CA 45th, 48th, and 49th, from Nate Silver
We present midterm election probabilities from Nate Silver, who uses multi-factor statistical analyses, covering US, California, and local house races. The website is fivethirtyeight.com
The probability of the Democrats controlling the House is 84.5%, while the probability of the Republicans maintaining control is only 15.5%. The center of the predicted split is 234 D to 201 R. Wow.
The popular vote for the house is Democrats with an 8.8 point margin. A margin greater than 5.5 leads to a Democratic House.
For the Senate, the probability of the Democrats taking control is only 1 in 5. The probability of the Republicans maintaining control is 4 in 5.
Trump’s approval rating is at 42.6%, with 52.2% disapproving.
The house races can be classified into likelihood categories for seats as:
190 Solid D, > 95% probability of a D win
18 Likely D, > 75% D
8 Lean D, > 60% D
21. Toss up, < 60% both. 2 of these 21 to D gives them the 218 majority!
19. Lean R, > 60% R
48 Likely R, > 75% R
131 Solid R, > 95% R
Adding these up gives 216 D, 198 R, with 21 toss-ups. The Dems, then, would need only 7 of the toss-ups to make 223.
Prediction for CA 45th, Lean D:
D Katie Porter. Win probability, 7 in 10. Predicted vote 51.7%.
R Mimi Walters. Win probability, 3 in 10, Predicted vote 48.3%.
Prediction for CA 48th, Lean D:
D Harley Rouda. Win probability, 2 in 3. Predicted vote 51.4%.
R Dana Rohrabacher. Win probability, 1 in 3. Predicted vote 48.8%.
Prediction for CA 49th, Likely D:
D Mike Levin. Win probability 19 in 20. Predicted vote 55.1%.
R Diane Harkey. Win probability 1 in 20. Predicted vote 44.9%.
California has 53 Representatives in the House. Ratings are:
39 Solid D
2. Likely D
3. Lean D
1. Toss up
4. Likely R
4. Solid R
If we add these up, we get 44 D and 8 R, with one toss up, to make 53. The current breakdown in the House from CA is 39 D and 14 R. So this would be a gain of 5 for D and loss of 6 for R, with one toss-up.
The toss up California district is the 39th. Democrat Gil Cisneros and Republican Young Kim are each given equal 1 in 2 chances. The predicted outcome is the very close 50.1% to 49.9%, respectively.
All three of the these races require dedicated campaign work.
