In todays IHME or University of Washington Coronavirus projections, the most probable total US deaths have dropped by 22,000, from 82,000 to 60,000. This is a quarter. The 95% of probability containing range is from (31,000 to 127,000), or approximately from half to double of the most probable number. From the figure, on May 1, about 53,000 of the deaths will have occurred. In the last two updates that we have presented, we have dropped deaths a third, from 94,000 to 60,000.
The peak of deaths per day has dropped to 2200 (900 to 5100) from its previous 3,000, or also about a quarter. The peak has moved up four days from April 16 to April 12, or four days from now. It’s tempting to think that once you get to the peak it is all downhill from there and that you can relax restrictions. Actually, you cannot relax until you get back down to the chalet.
Hospitalizations, or bed usage, actually peaks on April 13, despite the April 11 date listed below. This is two days earlier than the previous April 15. The probability maximizes at 95,000 (42,000 to 211,000), which has dropped a third from the previous projection of 141,000.
The crucial ventilators needed at the peak on April 13 is now 17,000 (8,100 to 35,300). That is down a third from the previous 25,000 needed on the previous April 16th peak.
The peak of ICU beds needed is now 20,000 (10,000 to 41,000) again, about half to double the peak probability value. That Occurs on April 14, and is cut a third from the previous 29,000.
