The new IHME Coronavirus projections for the US are extended to December 1. They show that 67,000 lives are savable if we went up to 95% masking. The previous projection was to November 1, and was 32,000 lives savable. This has now more than doubled. Presently, about 55% of Americans wear masks when needed. The IHME model assumes that 50% of Schools will be online only.
The estimates are that there is a 17%-18% chance of transmission without someone wearing a mask. That is reduced to only a 3% chance with a mask. The IHME model assumes that when deaths reach 8 per million in a state, that they will then impose mandates.
The new projections are 295,011 deaths by December 1 with present restrictions, which is reduced to 228,271 with 95% masking, a difference of about 67,000. The 95% probability range of the deaths with present restrictions is 242,000 to 370,000. The range for the masking 228,000 is 205,000 to 255,000, or about 10% of the 228,000.
Present deaths from Johns Hopkins are 160,091. So the new projection is 135,000 more deaths by December 1, which with masking is reduced to 68,000. The 67,000 reduction is about 50%. We really should have masking everywhere it is useful, and enforce it even on those who are misinformed or inconsiderate. Another data on CNN is that 10% of people cause 80% of infections. You have to avoid such people, and stay away from such situations. Remember, we managed to construct smoking free businesses and schools.
We show the IHME projected deaths for US states which have large projected increases, or in which a large number of lives can be saved by universal masking. Afterwards, we discuss the states with large gains in the new projections. States are ordered by projected deaths. The Columns are the States, Johns Hopkins Current Deaths, the Projections, the projections With Masks, and Lives Saved with masking.
| State | Current Deaths | Projections | With Masks | Lives Saved |
| CA | 10,006 | 32,692 | 21,384 | 11,308 |
| TX | 8,569 | 27,435 | 24,305 | 3,130 |
| FL | 7,747 | 19,358 | 15,765 | 3,593 |
| GA | 4,026 | 11,288 | 8,163 | 3,125 |
| OH | 3,618 | 9,041 | 5,331 | 3,710 |
| NC | 2,126 | 8,862 | 3,849 | 5,013 |
| LA | 4,146 | 7,901 | 6,230 | 1,671 |
| MO | 1,302 | 5,436 | 2,793 | 2,643 |
| CO | 1,852 | 5,179 | 2,814 | 2,365 |
| WA | 1,653 | 5,075 | 2,606 | 2,469 |
| AL | 1,714 | 4,296 | 2,659 | 1,637 |
| WI | 978 | 3,708 | 1,546 | 2,162 |
| SC | 1,942 | 3,672 | 3,311 | 361 |
| MS | 1,825 | 3,464 | 2,814 | 650 |
| NV | 900 | 3,152 | 2,149 | 1,003 |
| OR | 339 | 2,992 | 959 | 2,033 |
| OK | 593 | 2,967 | 1,335 | 1,632 |
| TN | 1,186 | 2,903 | 1,827 | 1,076 |
| AR | 514 | 2,234 | 1,063 | 1,171 |
California lives saved are about 16.9% or 1/6 of the total lives saved. North Carolina wasn’t even in my short list a week ago, and is now second, with 7.5%. Ohio, Washington, and Wisconsin are also new to the list. Together, California and North Carolina make up 24.4%, or about a quarter of lives saved. Totaling the first six states, which are over 3,000 lives saved each, gives 29,879, or 45%. Totaling all 11 states with over 2,000 lives saved gives 41,551, or 62%. This allows campaigns for masking to focus their efforts, with the maximum benefits for those states.
The sharp rise in deaths in the next four months in all of the states in the table is going to give a shock to all of those states. But, it may also leave them to doubt the model, especially with steep rises projected in the last month of November.
