IHME Projection of October 29th for February 1 US Coronavirus Deaths Goes Back up to 400,000. This is about 15,000 more than last week’s estimate.
While we hoped that the Coronavirus would die out over the summer, it didn’t. Now we are finding that it is indeed seasonal, and will be a major problem in the winter.
We have now reached 9 million confirmed cases in the US. The IHME still claims that we are only detecting a quarter of the tests, so that there may be 36 million cases, which is about 11% of Americans.
Dr. Sanjay Gupta on CNN reminds us that 40% of cases are asymptomatic, and 50% of transmissions occur between symptoms appear.
Dr. Chris Murray, the Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the U. Of Washington (IHME), says that 18 states will have real stress on ICUs this winter.
Present US masking is only at 65%. We show the IHME numbers for how many deaths to expect by February 1, and that over 61,000 lives can be saved by 95% masking.
By the end of the Presidential Term on January 20, the US death toll is expected to exceed 370,000, and 50,000 deaths are savable by 95% masking, which is 35% of those expected to occur by then.
Now for the numbers. The IHME projections are that US deaths for February 1 with the current masking is 399,163. With 95% masking now, that can be reduced to 337,670, saving 61,493 lives. Deaths yesterday in IHME were 227,761, leaving 171,402 to go. So the 61,493 savable lives are 36% of those to go.
Daily deaths on February 1 have declined from a mid-January peak, to 2,228 per day. With 95% masking, they will be reduced to 1,326 per day, saving 902 lives per day, or 40%.
Estimated infections per day now are 168,364, while those confirmed are roughly 78,000 per day, giving a ratio of 2.2.
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We can use the IHME projections to evaluate a more meaningful date: January 20th, the end of the Presidential Term. Deaths then are projected to be 372,031. But with 95% masking, the projection is reduced to 321,801, saving 50,230 lives. With current deaths of 227,761, there are 144,270 to go by then. So the 50,230 savable lives are 35% of those new ones projected.
Daily deaths for January 20th are projected at 2,290. This can be reduced to 1,317, saving 973 lives a day, or 42%.
