Coronavirus Projections for California, Texas, Florida and New York for March 1, by IHME
We show the November 12 projections by IHME for the four largest states, now out to March 1. We give projected deaths, and lives saved with 95% masking, which we call full masking. We present projected deaths per day when they reach a maximum in January, and lives saved per day with full masking. We show the model calculated current daily infections by state, and compare that to the current daily infections confirmed by tests. We also present the maximum expected hospitalizations, ICU beds, and ventilators needed, and compare it to beds available. Even when there are beds available, many would normally be used by other medical needs, and often critical ones. There also are the extra strains on medical personnel from the large number of increased cases.
As we are typing this, the election was called for Biden with 306 to 232 electoral votes, after Georgia was called for Biden. Trump also gave a news conference taking credit for Pfizer’s rapid vaccine development under his Warp Speed program, with one billion dollars support. That was disputed before, and also after he gave the talk. He did not admit defeat in the election. It’s hard to sell a vaccine to a doubting audience when you are denying reality in the most important current event to happen to our nation. HHS Secretary Azar rattled off virus protective protocols in less than three seconds, also irresponsible to the most important health issue of our time.
US Coronavirus cases are 10.7 million, with 243,466 deaths, approaching a quarter of a million. Earlier analyses showed that excess deaths had exceeded detected ones by 50%.
California Projections
California just reached a million infections. It has a population of 39.5 million.
Projected deaths to March 1 are 27,073, but can be reduced to 22,920 by complete masking, saving 4,153 lives. Current deaths are 18,097, leaving 8,976 to go. The 4,253 lives savable are 46% of the future deaths. The 27,073 March 1 deaths are 50% greater than current deaths.
Projected daily deaths on March 1 are 179, which can be reduced to 67 a day with full masking, or to only 37%.
Current daily infections in the model are 6,256, whereas daily confirmed infections by testing are fluctuating between 4,000 to 6,000. The ratio of modeled to detected infections thus range from 1.6 to 1.0.
The daily cases and hospitalizations keep increasing to March 1, when hospitalizations reach 14,414, well short of the 26,654 beds available. ICU beds, however, will reach 3,617 needed, while only 1,994 are available. Ventilators needed will be 1,530. Currently, only 3,302 are hospitalized, so the projections are an increase by a factor of 4.4.
Similarly to New York, California and nearby Western states of Oregon, Washington, and Nevada, will carry out an independent analysis of the data on new Coronavirus vaccines, to increase confidence in their use by Americans. This need not slow the distribution of the vaccines.
Texas Projections
We have to note that Texas led the arguments against the Affordable Care Act in the Supreme Court this Tuesday. Texas passed one million Coronavirus cases this week. It has a population of 29 million.
Projected deaths by March 1 are 37,118, which can be reduced to 32,635 by full masking, saving 4,493 lives. Current deaths are 19,140, so there are 17,978 to go. Savable lives are 25% of this. The March 1 lives lost are 94% larger than current lives lost, or almost double. Current masking in Texas is 70%.
Deaths per day will reach a maximum on January 11, of 208 deaths per day, which can be reduced to 124 with full masking, leaving 84 per day, meaning 40% of the lives are savable. But the assumption is that we start with full masking now to keep it down to this level. Currently there are 112 deaths a day, which will be increased by 86% on January 11.
Current estimated daily infections are 27,089, while confirmed ones are around 7,000 a day, giving a ratio of 3.9.
Hospital beds needed will peak on January 11 at 13,585. Fortunately there are 28,634 available. ICU beds needed then will be 3,599, and 1,532 patients will be on invasive ventilators.
Florida Projections
Trump’s home state, population 21.5 million. Today we learned that 130 Secret Service agents who protect the President are either sick or quarantined. This is 10% of the agency. Eight staffers at the RNC are sick, including Chief of Staff Richard Walters. Also, outside political advisors Corey Lewandowski and David Bossie. These may be from the White House election night party.
Florida projected deaths to March 1 are 23,542, which can be reduced to 20,785 with full masking, saving 2,757 lives. Present deaths are 17,327, so there are 6,215 more to go by March 1. Savable lives are 44% of this.
Daily deaths are 58, which will be 57 on March 1. This can be reduced to 14 per day with full masking, saving 75% of lives then, or 43 a day.
Current estimated cases per day are 7,329. With roughly 5,000 a day confirmed, the ratio is 1.5.
The minor peak of hospitalizations occurs on November 30th, with 3,030 beds needed, while 20,184 are available. Then, 812 patients will be in ICUs, and 396 will be on invasive ventilators.
New York Projections
Population of 19.5 million. Trump said today that he would withhold the vaccine from New York because they had an independent committee to okay the vaccine to restore consumer confidence above the current 50%. Punishing states for convincing consumers that the vaccine is okay is not a great way to sell the vaccine. Governor Cuomo said that the independent analysis would occur at the same time as the FDA committee analysis, and should not slow the distribution of the vaccine.
New York deaths on March 1 are projected at 45,562, which could be reduced to 42,515 with full masking, saving 3,047 lives. Current deaths are 33,955, so there are 11,607 more to go. The savable lives are 26% of those. The March 1 deaths are an increase of 34% over current deaths. Current masking is 79%.
Current deaths are only 31 a day, but will max on January 26 at 148 a day. This can be reduced to 101 a day with full masking, saving 47 lives a day, or 32%.
Current estimated cases per day in the model are 7,521, and confirmed cases are around 3,500 a day, giving a ratio of 2.2.
Hospitalizations will reach a maximum on January 2, at 9,049 beds, with 13,011 available. Patient in ICUs then will be 2,380, and those on invasive ventilators will be 1,011. The first wave peak occurred on April 12, when there were 18,873 patients.
