Coronavirus Projected Deaths of 440,000 by March 1, 2021, by IHME
The November 12 projections by the IHME include the recent rapid Coronavirus rises in most states, but also assume that restrictions will be reimposed in the future. They do not yet include future vaccine distributions, but will soon. We also include the strains on the hospital resources as well as the lives savable by 95% masking, which we just call full masking. Current US masking is at 68%.
Projected deaths to March 1 are 438,941, but they can be reduced to 370,702 with full masking, saving 68,239 lives. Current lives lost are 240,476, so there are 198,465, or almost 200,000 more to go by March 1. The savable lives with full masking are 34.4% or over a third of those.
Daily deaths peak on January 18 at 2,143 per day, whereas currently there are are 1,110 per day now, so that is nearly double. With full masking, projected deaths on January 18 will be reduced to 1,168, similar to present, saving 975 lives per day, or about 45.5%.
We note that the double or over 2,000 deaths per day happen to occur at the end of Trump’s term of office on January 20, 2021 (1/20/21). Trump still has two months to urge his followers to wear masks, social distance, and avoid gatherings over 10 people. We still have to get through Thanksgiving, Christmas shopping, Christmas, and New Year’s.
The projected number of deaths reached on January 20 is 360,339. That is almost precisely 50% higher than the current number of deaths, 240,476, with 119,863 more to happen. Just compare 360,000 to 240,000 with 120,000 more to happen. With full masking starting now, the number of deaths reached on January 20 is 324,234, allowing 36,105 lives to be saved, or 30%. That is the difference that Trump could make now during his term. What he does now could also lead to full masking in the future beyond that.
Estimated infections per day by the IHME model are currently 232,813, and confirmed infections per day are around 120,000 a day, giving a ratio of about 2. From an IHME graph, only about 23% of US infections are confirmed, giving a ratio of infections to confirmed of 4.3.
All hospital beds needed at their peak on January 22 will be 128,152. ICU beds needed will be 33,321, and invasive ventilators will peak on January 18 at 14,126. That also occurs when Trump’s term ends. Current hospitalizations are 62,000, so at peak, it will be double the current care load. We hope that by March 1, many of the most susceptible to infection will be vaccinated.
The 440,000 current projection by March 1 has built in states reimposing mandates when their death rates exceed 8 per million. 33 states would have to reimpose mandates by then. Otherwise, there are projected to be 587,000 deaths by March 1, which adds another 147,000 deaths over the current projection for March 1, which is already about 200,000 over current deaths.
