Russian Oil Exports to Europe, China, and the US
The oil scene in round numbers is that the World is about to use 100 million barrels per day (mbpd), where a barrel is 42 gallons and makes 19.2 gallons of gasoline, and the rest other petroleum products. A large part of the numbers here come from the New York Times of March 8th.
United States
The US consumes about 20 mbpd, or 20% of the world’s oil, with 0.33 billion population out of a world of 7.75 billion people, or 4.26% of the World’s population. That is a factor of 4.7 times more per capita. Guzzle on, Dude.
In 2019 the US produced 12.2 mbpd, and in 2020 produced 11.3 mbpd. The US imported 11.3 mbpd in 2021. That is expected to increase to 11.9 mbpd in 2022. Net exports in 2021 are 3.5 mbpd. I know those don’t add up correctly. I’m working on it.
US imports come 61% from Canada, 10% from Mexico, 6% from Saudi Arabia, 3% from Columbia, 3% from Russia, 2% from Iraq, and 2% from Ecuador.
However, the US only gets 0.6 mbpd from Russia, or about 6%. President Biden just banned oil from Russia, sort of, by ordering no new contracts, and allowing 45 days for those with Russian contracts to end them. Another source says that in 2021 said that the US received 209,000 bpd of crude oil, and 500,000 bpd of petroleum products. Given yearly fluctuations, this is roughly consistent with the 0.6 mbpd above.
Europe
Europe gets 45% of its gas (natural gas) from Russia, and 25% of its oil. They plan to become independent of Russia by 2030.
By the way, Europe was warned of Putin’s and Russia’s aggression twice before: in 2008 with Russia’s takeover of Georgia; and in 2014 with Russia’s seizure of Crimea and the Donbas regions of Ukraine.
Russia
In 2021, Russia earned $119 billion in oil and gas revenues.
Russia’s oil output is 11.3 mbpd, of which it consumes 3.45 mbpd, or 30.5%, and it exports 7 mbpd. Of the exports, 4.5 mbpd go to countries backing the sanctions, and 2.3 mbpd to countries that to not. The largest country not backing sanctions is China, which imports 1.6 mbpd.
This is crude oil exports at 4.75 mbpd, and I think the total output of 11.3 mbpd includes petroleum products. The United States gets a small sliver of crude oil exports, 0.21 mbpd.
New Sources of Oil
Actually, these are old sources, and 2-2.5 mbpd could come from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have been keeping their production low along with other members of OPEC, in order to keep the prices high. Iran could increase by 1.3 mbpd. The US could increase its output by 0.76 mbpd. Venezuela could increase production by 0.6 mbpd. These total about 4.8 mbpd or 5% of world oil consumption.
How to Make Sanctions against Russian Oil Work
Unless China somehow decides to sanction Russia (and therefore deny its policy to someday take over Taiwan), the world can: (1) try to get Replacements for the 4.3 mbpd from the countries that back sanctions and have more capacity, but this also means replacing that from Russian pipelines with expanded or new ports, refineries, and new trucking or rail oil tank cars; or (2) get Elastic by cutting total world oil consumption. Elasticity still involves new ports, refining and transportation.
Since the US is the largest oil consumer per capita, it must not just think of replacing its 0.6 mbpd, but at least withdrawing its 20% share of the world’s 4.3 mbpd deficit, which still only comes to 0.86 mbpd, or 4.3% of the US consumption. Since the US could step up production by 0.76 mbpd, we almost make it.
We point out my previous article, in which we point out the old and new ways of making oil consumption elastic by slowing down while driving, and other gasoline saving methods, or by eliminating trips.
For the OPEC 2-2.5 mbpd of possible increase in production, remember who came in and freed Kuwait from Saddam Hussein’s takeover, and probably saved Saudi Arabia from having its oil fields taken over. Remember who did not blame Saudi Arabia for 9/11. Remember who sold vast amounts of arms to Saudi Arabia. Remember which President ignored the savage murder of a US correspondent by Saudi Arabia. Remember who is protecting Persian Gulf countries from Iran. It’s time to cash in on these debts.
Even if Russian oil exports to Europe cannot be readily shut off, the pricing of new contracts can be reduced, along with their profits to Russia, by lowering the price of world oil, which can be reduced by both producing enough in this highly inelastic market, and by becoming more elastic, which also reduces greenhouse gas emissions. It is encouraging that even the Green Party in Germany is willing to keep their nuclear reactors running to reduce the imports of Russian natural gas and coal to generate electricity.
