IHME Projects Rapid Covid Rise in China. It Can Be Halved by 80% Masking.
The IHME projections have been higher than have occurred since China has been very strict about masking and movement in infected areas.
Current masking in China is at 59% and steady in the IHME current projection, although a graph in the Projection Report shows it is 50%. Social distancing is modeled as 16% greater than pre-pandemic, rising to 19% greater by November 1. Those fully vaccinated is modeled as 86% and holding steady. The IHME modeling effectiveness for the Chinese vaccines are for CanSino 32% against infection, and 48% against severe disease. For Sinopharm they are 35% against infection, and 53% against severe disease.
Total Deaths on today, July 24, is modeled at 20,005, while Reported Deaths are modeled as 15,541, with a present difference of 4,464.
On the end projected date of November 1, Total Deaths are projected to be 33,663, giving 13,658 more to occur. With the application of antiviral medications, the Total Deaths on November 1 are projected at 32,099, giving 12,094 more to go. Finally, with 80% masking and antivirals, Total Deaths on November 1 are projected at 27,324, giving 7,319 more to go, or about half (53.6%) of those with the present masking.
Reported Death increases are very close to the projected Total Death increases. For present masking they are 13,057, for use of antiviral medication they are 11,595, and for 80% masking with antivirals, they are 7,140 or 54.7% of the current Reported projection.
Estimated infections per day on July 24 are modeled at 49,026 a day. By November 1, the current projection is 902,315 per day, even with antivirals. With 80% masking, this is again cut in half to 403,267 a day, or 44.7%. Reported cases per day on November 1 remain well under Estimated Infections per day, at 131,260, or 14.5% or one-seventh. With 80% masking, Reported cases on November 1 are projected at 58,033 per day, or 14.4%.
On July 24, only 343 are modeled in hospitals, with 34 in ICUs, or 10%. On November 1, 17,172 are projected hospitalized, with a reduction to 14,570 with antivirals, and to 6,900 or 40% with antivirals and 80% masking.
Daily deaths on November 1 are projected at 310 per day, reduced to 249 per day or 80% with antivirals, and to 129 per day adding 80% masking, or 42%.
