IHME Projects Only 40% of Global Covid Deaths Have Been Reported.
Future Total Deaths to November are over a half a million. Half can be prevented by going to 80% masking.
IHME model numbers of Total and Reported Deaths are in the following table, for today, July 25, and November 1, the difference being future deaths to November 1. These are shown for three cases: Current Projections; Antiviral Medicine application; and Antivirals plus an increase to 80% Masking.
| Total Deaths | Current Projection | Antiviral | 80% Masking |
| Nov. 1 | 17,927,411 | 17,899,825 | 17,638,718 |
| July 25 | 17,365,506 | 17,365,506 | 17,363,711 |
| To Occur | 561,905 | 534,319 | 275,008 |
| % of Current | 100% | 95.1% | 48.9% |
| Reported Deaths | Current Projection | Antiviral | 80% Masking |
| Nov. 1 | 7,198,770 | 7,189,261 | 7,084,404 |
| July 25 | 6,968,935 | 6,968,935 | 6,968,647 |
| To Occur | 229,835 | 220,326, | 115,757 |
| % of Current | 100% | 95.9% | 50.4% |
In the Current Projection column, the ratio of November 1 Reported to Total Deaths is only 40.2%, and is only 40.1% in the July 25 numbers. That is to say that Total Covid Deaths are 2.5 times those Reported.
Daily deaths rise somewhat and peak around August 8 when the Total Deaths are projected at 7,475 per day globally. Masking at 80% would reduce them to 5,564 per day or to 74%. Reported Deaths on August 8 are projected to be 3,244 per day, or 43% of Total Deaths. Masking to 80% would reduce Reported to 2,422 per day, or to 75%.
Total Daily Deaths then decline to November 1, where they are projected at 4,521 per day, which would be reduced with 80% masking to 1,453 per day, or 32.1%. Reported Daily Deaths on November 1 are projected at 1,801 per day or 40% of Total Daily Deaths again, and 80% masking would reduce them to 552 per day or 30.6% of the Current Projection of Reported Daily Deaths.
Globally, fully vaccinated are 62%, with one shot at 67%. Current Mask use is at 27%, modeled to rapidly drop to 24% and stay there. Social distancing is up 21% from pre-pandemic, and modeled to increase to 22%.
Estimated Daily Infections on July 25 are 16,293,027 per day, whereas 80% masking would reduced them to 7,931,614 per day or 48.7%, about half. Reported Daily Infections on July 25 are projected at 1,049,881 per day, or only 6.4% of Estimated Daily Infections. On November 1, Estimated Daily Infections are projected to be 13,695,093 per day, or 84% of what they are on July 25. With 80% masking, they could again be reduced to 40% of Estimated Daily Infections or 5,428,588 per day.
Covid Hospitalizations on July 25 are projected at 384,581, with 65,882 or 17.1% in ICU beds. On November 1, these are projected to be reduced to 60.4% of present, or 232,667, with 38,210 in ICUs or 16.4% of hospitalizations.
