IHME Projects Four Million Infections a Day in China by New Year’s
We use the IHME model run on September 9. For China, today, September 19th, there are projected to be about 320,000 infections a day. However, the infections per day are going to accelerate, and by New Year’s Day, there will be about 4.3 million infections per day, out of a population of 1.4 billion people. Only about 4% of infections are taken as detected. If China were to advance from 59% masking to 80% masking, that would reduce to 2.6 million infections per day, or 59%.
For China, the IHME uses 59% masking, 92% full vaccinations, 18% now immune from the Omicron variant, and a mobility gain of 6% rising to 11% by January 1. Northern China is about 30%-40% infected with Omicron.
With the infections, Hospitalizations will increase from about 5,400 beds today and 500 ICUs (9%) to about 80,000 beds and 7,000 ICUs on January 1.
Total Daily Deaths are about 200 per day now. They will grow to about 3,500 per day on January 1. This could be reduced to about 2,800 per day with antivirals, and 2,000 per day with 80% masking, or 57% of that with present masking.
Total Deaths in China on September 19 are estimated at 22,640. On January 1, they are projected at 155,164, or about 133,000 more to go by then. With antivirals, new deaths are about 107,000. With 80% masking, they are reduced to about 98,000, or 63% of those with present masking.
The January 1 total death rate from COVID is projected to be 0.25 per 100,000, which can be reduced to 0.15 per 100,000 with 80% masking. The Reported Deaths are about 80% of the total deaths.
