The very low number of Covid deaths in China look like it will peak and then somewhat decline. However, by February, the total deaths are only projected to be 8.4 per 100,000, compared to 417 per 100k in the US, a factor of 50 lower. The IHME projections are always much smaller than occur for China, since China sticks to the Zero Covid lockdowns and testing. The latest 5 year Congress has only strengthened Xi Jinping’s command for another five years, and determination to stick with that policy. The projections for 80% masking from the current 59% will only save 7.4% of the future lives lost.
87% of Chinese will have been fully vaccinated by February 1. Mask use is 59% countrywide. The Chinese vaccine CanSino is 48% effective against severe disease, and 32% against infection. The vaccine Sinopharm is 53% effective against severe disease and 35% against infection.
The Total Deaths by February 1 are 117,840, and with 22,192 modeled on October 26, leaves 95,648 to occur by February 1. With a population of 1.4 billion, this is only 8.42 per 100k, compared to the projection for 417 Total Deaths per 100k in the United States, or one fiftieth of it. With 80% masking, there are projected to be 110,717 deaths by February 1, saving 7,123, or only 7.4% of those to occur.
Total Daily Deaths on October 26 are modeled at only 167, or 0.01 per 100k. By February 1 they will be 1,294 a day, or 0.09 per 100k. With 80% masking there will be 1,184 a day or 0.08 per 100k. With antiviral medicines, this will be 1,040 a day, or 0.07 per 100k. Currently, death by Covid is only the 77th ranked cause of death in China.
Hospitalizations on February 1 are projected at 68,329, including 6,749 or 9.9% in the ICU. On October 26, they are modeled at 17,258, with 1,710 in ICUs or 9.9%.
Infections per day now are modeled at 1.10 million per day, They will peak on November 17 at 2.79 million a day. With 80% masking this will only be reduced by 6.3%.
Only 8% of Chinese have been infected as of October 17. The infection detection rate is only 2%. Immunity against the Delta variant is estimated at 35% now, to grow to 42% by February 1. BA.1/BA.2 is active in 31 locations, and immunity to it is 19% to rise to 26%. BA.5 is active in 33 locations, and immunity to it is 17% now, to rise to 23%.
